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Alabama Hopes To Avoid Upset Vs Rival Auburn

The Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four road games against the Auburn Tigers (6-5, 5-6). The Crimson Tide will try to stave off the upset-minded Tigers in the Iron Bowl on Saturday night.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Auburn Tigers
  • Date/Time: November 27, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Jordan-Hare Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Alabama -17.5 | O/U 55 (Line History)
  • Alabama vs Auburn Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Crimson Tide opened as 17.5-point favorites but have received enough betting action to bump the line up to Alabama -19.5. The total in the Iron Bowl has remained steady since opening at 55 points. Alabama is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games against SEC opponents.

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Alabama News & Notes

Bryce Young had a record-setting day under center for the Crimson Tide in last Saturday’s 42-35 win at home over the Arkansas Razorbacks. The sophomore quarterback went 31-for-40 for an Alabama-record 559 passing yards while also throwing five touchdowns without an interception. Jameson Williams had eight catches for 190 yards and three touchdowns and John Metchie III had 10 catches for 173 yards and a score.

Despite their monster day on offense, the Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread as 20.5-point favorites and only won by a touchdown after allowing 35 points.

Alabama’s defense hasn’t been a consistent problem this season, averaging 306.5 total yards and 19.7 points per game allowed, but it has had a handful of dud performances. A top-five offense averaging 44.4 points and 501.6 total yards per game has generally offset the lack of a dominant defense.

Auburn News & Notes

Tank Bigsby had a big day on the ground with 164 rushing yards and a touchdown on 22 carries against the South Carolina Gamecocks. But it wasn’t enough to secure the win as Auburn blew a 14-0 lead en route to a 21-17 loss as 7-point road favorites. The Tigers fell to 0-3 SU and ATS over their last three games since opening the season with a respectable 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS run.

Starting quarterback Bo Nix was lost for the season to an ankle injury suffered in Auburn’s 43-34 loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs. TJ Finley went 17-for-32 with 188 passing yards, one touchdown and no interceptions against the Gamecocks. Finley will likely be called upon to do a lot more in Saturday’s matchup against the Crimson Tide.

How Alabama Will Cover

If Alabama’s high-powered offense can build an early lead and force Auburn to abandon the running game, all signs would point to a blowout win and cover as TJ Finley isn’t likely to succeed in a shootout against Bryce Young and the Crimson Tide.

How Auburn Will Cover

Auburn’s best path to a cover includes keeping Alabama’s offense off the field. Putting together some long drives and getting Tank Bigsby plenty of touches could lead to a closer score than the spread suggests this game will have.

Computer Pick: Alabama -19.5

For more Week 13 college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Alabama is 13-7 ATS over its last 20 games.
  • Auburn is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 at home vs Alabama.
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in Auburn’s last 7 games.