The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide look to remain undefeated and ride high into the College Football Playoff but the No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs stand in their way as they meet in the SEC championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Alabama edged Georgia 26-23 in the national championship game last year and is a 13.5-point favorite in this game with the total Sportsbook at 64 points.
- Alabama is 4-0 SU in its last four games vs Georgia (avg. winning margin: 11.5).
- The total has gone OVER in six of Alabama’s last seven games vs Georgia (avg. combined score: 55.57).
- Alabama is 14-0 SU in its last 14 games (avg. winning margin: 31.71).
Alabama vs Georgia Game Center
Crimson Tide are a well-balanced unit
Alabama closed out the regular season the way it began and that was with a victory as it went a perfect 12-0 with an average win margin of 35.25 points. The Crimson Tide average the second-most points per game in the nation at 49, while surrendering the third-fewest points per game at 13.8. Offensively, they are led by Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa, the sophomore quarterback who has thrown for 3,189 yards and 36 touchdowns while tossing just two interceptions.
The Hawaii native also ranks second in the nation in quarterback rating at 95.9; he and Kyler Murray are the only two pivots to have a rating over 90. Defensively, the Crimson Tide allow the 10th-fewest passing yards per game at 168.2 and the 15th-fewest rushing yards at 114. Additionally, they rank fifth in the nation in sacks, dragging down opposing quarterbacks 40 times this season.
Bulldogs look to avenge national championship loss
Georgia has been ranked inside the top 10 all season and was as high as second, sitting just behind Alabama, who has been No. 1 all year. The Bulldogs only dropped once in the rankings following its Week 7 loss in Death Valley, falling 36-16 to then-No. 13 LSU. That defeat was the only one Georgia suffered all season as it went 11-1 with an average winning margin of 27.73. It has averaged 40.1 points per game this season, 13th-best in the nation, and amassed the 11th-most rushing yards per game at 259.8.
Trailing Tagovailoa in the quarterback rating standings is Georgia sophomore Jake Fromm, who had a QBR of 86.1 while throwing for 2,236 yards with 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs run game comes from sophomore running back D’Andre Swift, who rushed for 962 yards and chipped in nine touchdowns. Defensively, Georgia surrenders the 10th-fewest points per game at 17.2 and the 14th-fewest passing yards per game at 175.1. The one thing that the Bulldogs lack defensively is big-play ability. They racked up just 20 sacks, which ranks in a tie for 32nd-fewest in the nation, while their six interceptions are the 22nd-fewest in college football.
Is an UNDER in store for this game?
The SEC championship game features two of the top 10 defenses in the nation and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 64. There are trends pointing toward the OVER, however, those totals are UNDER the Sportsbook total as Georgia has gone OVER in five of its last six games with an average combined score of 58.67 and six of the last seven meetings between these two teams have gone OVER with an average combined score of 55.57.
The Crimson Tide played three games against ranked opponents this season and each of those games went UNDER with an average combined score of 40.33. Similarly, three of the four games that Georgia played against ranked teams have gone UNDER 64 points. I think these teams are going to be evenly matched and I think the UNDER will come through.
My take on Alabama vs Georgia
I like the UNDER 64 points in this game. I think these teams are fairly similar in their styles and the pedigree they bring to the gridiron and I just think they are going to be a wash offensively and it’ll be a low-scoring affair. Alabama is allowing the third-fewest points per game in the nation at 13.8, while Georgia surrenders just 17.2 points per game, which is the 10th-fewest in college football. The Bulldogs have a good running game, averaging the 11th-most rushing yards per game at 259.8, but the Crimson Tide allow the 15th-fewest rushing yards per game at 114. I think these teams are going to duke it out defensively and I don’t anticipate a high-scoring game.
