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Alabama Hopes To Bounce Back From Rare Loss

Alabama takes on Mississippi St. in Week 7 College Football action.

The No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) were 19-0 SU and 13-6 ATS over their previous 19 games before suffering a stunning loss to the Texas A&M Aggies last weekend. The Crimson Tide will be looking to get back on track Saturday when they visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-2, 2-3). 

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
  • Date/Time: October 16, 7 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: Alabama -17.5 | O/U 59.5 (Line History)
  • Alabama vs Mississippi State Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Crimson Tide opened as 17.5-point road favorites and have been bet down slightly to Alabama -17. The total has moved down significantly in this matchup to 57.5 points after opening at 59.5 points. 

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Alabama News & Notes

Alabama showed that it wasn’t invincible in a 31-29 close call against the Florida Gators back in Week 3. That game seemed to be an anomoly after the Crimson Tide went 2-0 SU and ATS over their next two games with blowout wins over Southern Miss and Ole Miss. But then last weekend, Texas A&M beat the Crimson Tide 41-38 in a game that Alabama never led.

At 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS, Alabama is still very much in control of its own destiny. The Crimson Tide will in all likelihood be double-digit favorites in all six of their remaining regular-season games. This defense suddenly doesn’t look as dominant as usual, though, and it’s about to face a great quarterback in Will Rogers.

Mississippi State News & Notes

Will Rogers went 46-for-59 for 408 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in Mississippi State’s 26-22 upset win over Texas A&M on October 2. Rogers is thriving in Mike Leach’s pass-happy offense with 1,862 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns and only two interceptions through the Bulldogs’ first five games. Makai Polk has been Rogers’ favorite target with 46 catches, 430 receiving yards and four touchdowns so far in 2021.

Dating back to last season, the Bulldogs are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS over their last seven games. Their two losses this season have come by two points against Memphis and by a field goal to LSU. But as they showed in their win over the Aggies, they can compete in the SEC West.

Why Alabama Will Cover

Playing Alabama is a scary enough proposition when the team isn’t coming off a loss. Nick Saban will use the recent setback as a motivational tool to push his team this week. And if they bring their best effort, which they likely will, Mississippi State could be in for a long day.

Why Mississippi State Will Cover

Zach Calzada was averaging only 186 passing yards per game in his previous four starts before torching Alabama’s defense for 285 yards and three touchdowns. Will Rogers has been excellent this season and could push the Crimson Tide defense to the limit if last week is any indication.

Computer Pick: Alabama -17

For more college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Alabama is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games.
  • The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 October games.
  • The UNDER is 11-2 in the Bulldogs’ last 13 home games.