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Betting Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas A&M Aggies

The good news for the Texas A&M Aggies: They’re coming off a bye following back-to-back uninspiring games. The bad news: So are the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, who visit Kyle Field looking to continue their unbeaten start to the season, having won each of their first five games by 24 or more points.

Matchup Information
  • Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas A&M Aggies (Matchup Report)
  • Date/Time: October 11, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: Alabama -18 | O/U 61.0 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

The Crimson Tide were favored by 18 points at opening, the smallest spread Alabama has seen this season. It’s also just the third time since the start of the 2018 season that Alabama has been favored by fewer than 20 points vs an SEC opponent.

Alabama News & Notes

While it’s easy to be impressed by the Crimson Tide from a straight-up wins perspective, this team isn’t nearly as rock-solid when it comes to the spread. Alabama is just 3-5 ATS in its previous eight games as a road favorite, a stretch that began with an eight-point victory at Texas A&M as a 25.5-point favorite back in October 2017.

One of the areas of improvement Nick Saban will be focusing on this week: the defense, which was tagged for 31 points in their September 28 win over Ole Miss. It’s the third time in the past seven games that the Crimson Tide have surrendered 30-plus points, including last year’s national championship loss to the Clemson Tigers.

Texas A&M News & Notes

What can the Aggies do to pull off the upset in this one? Keeping Kellen Mond upright is a great place to start – and Texas A&M has done well in that regard, with Mond having been sacked just nine times all season. They’ll also need to establish the run behind Isaiah Spiller, who leads the team with a 6.2 yards per carry average on the season (minimum 20 carries).

But the biggest factor in this one will be whether the Aggies can attack the Crimson Tide vertically. While Texas A&M has five receivers who average 10-plus yards per reception, it ranks just 87th in the nation in average yards per completion (11.53). And while the Crimson Tide have cracks, they’re allowing just 9.72 yards per completion on the year.

Betting Pick: UNDER 61

Both of these teams have limited the home-run play this season – and while the offenses are certainly capable of doing damage in other ways, we see this one falling below the total.

Shark Bites
  • Alabama is 12-0 SU in its last 12 games vs its conference.
  • Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in Alabama’s last 4 games vs its conference.