jarrett stidham

Arkansas vs Auburn: Who Will Bounce Back?

The Arkansas Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers face off this week – and after how they performed last week, both are in need of a bounce-back performance. It’s difficult to know which team had it worse: the Tigers saw their chances of making an appearance in the College Football Playoff take a significant hit with their 22-21 heartbreaker at the hands of LSU, while the Razorbacks were punched right in the mouth, falling 44-17 to visiting North Texas in their second consecutive loss to a team outside the Power 5 conferences.

Oddsmakers like the Tigers to atone in a major way, making them 25.5-point home favorites. The total has not yet been released. Auburn has won four of the previous five meetings overall, while the teams have gone a perfect 4-0 OVER/UNDER in their last four encounters.

SHARK BITES
  • Arkansas is 2-5 ATS in its previous seven road games.
  • Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against sub-.500 teams.
  • The UNDER is 20-8-1 in the Tigers’ past 29 home games.

Arkansas vs Auburn Game Center

Tigers Get Defensive as Big Home Faves

Auburn fans and bettors can take solace in the fact that the Tigers know how to keep lesser opponents off the scoreboard at Jordan-Hare Stadium – even if it doesn’t result in a cover. Auburn has gone UNDER in five of its previous six games as a favorite of 20 or more points dating back to November 2016 – and those conversions have been due almost exclusively to a staunch defense that has limited opponents to an average of 11.7 points over that span. Unfortunately for spread bettors, the Tigers have been a relative disappointment over that stretch, going just 1-3-2 ATS in those outings.

Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have covered three of their past five games as an underdog of 20-plus points, with their only two ATS losses in that span coming against Alabama in the form of a pair of 52-0 losses. They’re also 6-3 OVER/UNDER in their last nine as a dog of 20-plus points. Yet, given the struggles the Arkansas offense had last week, coupled with Auburn’s uneven offensive performance in 2018, the UNDER is the sensible option here.

Razorbacks Ripe for a Road Cover?

While Arkansas might not challenge for the SEC championship, it has been a solid cover option in road games in conference play over the past five years. The Razorbacks come into the weekend having gone 10-6 ATS in their past 16 SEC true road games since 2013. But bettors beware: Two of those ATS losses came at Jordan-Hare Stadium, where the Razorbacks have dropped their last two decisions by a combined score of 111-24.

And Auburn has been quite proficient at covering home games in SEC play, having gone 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight. That stretch includes three outright victories in games in which the Tigers were underdogs. Simply put, Auburn has become one of the toughest home outs in the SEC – and even though Arkansas has fared well against the rest of the conference from a spread standpoint since ’13, it hasn’t been able to do much of anything in Auburn. Look for the home side to put a dent in the Razorbacks’ recent SEC road cover fortunes. 

Slow Start Could Sink Arkansas

If the Razorbacks have any shot at keeping things competitive, they’ll need to get off to a fast start – and given how they’ve fared their past two games, things aren’t looking good. Arkansas had just 13 points at the half against Colorado State, and managed only 10 against North Texas the following week. For a team looking at implied totals of 42 and 36 points, respectively, in those two games, such meager first-half tallies are unacceptable.

And things are going to get a whole lot more difficult this week in Auburn, with the Tigers having held FBS opponents to a minuscule 6.8 first-half points per game in 2017 – the eighth-lowest total in all of Division I. With Arkansas having sputtered in the Sportsbook half against a pair of FCS foes, and the Tigers still boasting one of the most impressive defensive units in the country, bettors should strongly consider taking Auburn to cover the first-half spread while opting for the UNDER on Arkansas’ first-half total.

Arkansas is 2-5 ATS in its previous seven road games.away Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against sub-.500 teams.home The UNDER is 20-8-1 in the Tigers’ past 29 home games.home
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