Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Nevada Wolf Pack

Few teams dominated opponents over their final four games of the season like the Arkansas State Red Wolves – but will a lengthy pre-bowl break kill their momentum? The Red Wolves look for just their second victory in their last five bowl games as they face the Nevada Wolf Pack in the Arizona Bowl in Tucson. Arkansas State closed out the season in style, winning its final four games by an average of 23 points. The Red Wolves were particularly solid on defense, allowing a total of 54 points in those four wins.

The Arizona Bowl presents a different challenge altogether for Arkansas State, which is tasked with upending a Wolf Pack team that had built its own four-game winning streak prior to a 34-29 loss to UNLV in their regular-season finale. One of the key matchups in this one will be how the Wolf Pack’s 20th-ranked pass offense fares against a Red Wolves defense that allowed just 152.3 passing yards per game during its four-game season-ending run. Nevada is a 1-point underdog, with the total sitting at 57.5.

Arkansas State vs Nevada Arizona Bowl Game Center

’Tis the Season for Giving

Games with narrow spreads are often decided by the little things – and Arkansas State has a major edge in one of the factors that could ultimately determine the outcome. The Red Wolves were one of the top teams in the country at taking care of the football, and that should serve them well against a Nevada team that was one of the most charitable in terms of turnovers.

Arkansas State finished the season with a scant 13 turnovers (six fumbles lost, seven interceptions) in 12 games – the same number of giveaways as Division I powerhouses Alabama and Oklahoma, and only one more than Georgia and UCF. That minuscule tally allowed the Red Wolves to post a turnover margin of plus-5, ranking them inside the top 40 in the country.

That could pose a big problem for the Wolf Pack, who averaged the same number of takeaways per game against FBS opponents as Arkansas State (1.6) but were far worse at protecting the pigskin, totaling 26 turnovers (11 fumbles lost, 15 interceptions) – only four programs had more. A similar turnover disparity in this game would make the Red Wolves the superior cover option.

Third and Lost

There’s another factor working against the Wolf Pack in their quest to win a bowl game for the first time since 2015. Nevada has been one of the worst teams in the country at converting third downs into extra offensive plays or points – and with the way the Red Wolves have defended of late, they’re going to need to get a lot better if they hope to leave Tucson with a victory.

Nevada comes into the Arizona Bowl having made good on just 33.7 percent of its third-down opportunities in 2018, ranking 116th in the country. And while the Wolf Pack got away with it for most of the season, it bit them in their season finale, as they went just 5-for-15 in that narrow loss to the Runnin’ Rebels. Nevada converted just 30.8 percent of third downs in its five defeats.

Arkansas State did plenty right on defense over the final month of the season, and limiting third-down conversions is near the top of the list. The Red Wolves limited those opponents to a 33.9 percent success rate in those four wins, and should be able to negate Nevada’s offense sufficiently to keep the Wolf Pack UNDER their team total of 28.5.

My Pick: Going Low in the Desert

The focus has been on the Red Wolves’ stout defense – but the Wolf Pack were solid down the stretch in their own right. Nevada surrendered an average of 17 points over the course of its late-season four-game winning streak, and other than a disastrous 21-point second quarter from UNLV in the season finale, the Wolf Pack held their own against the host Runnin’ Rebels.

Both teams are trending extensively toward the UNDER. The Red Wolves have finished below the total in their last 16 following a successful cover, while Nevada is 6-2 to the UNDER in its last eight overall. I don’t see these teams reaching the 50s, let alone surpassing this super-high game total.