Army Favored To Continue Recent Success vs Navy

The tables have turned in the Army-Navy rivalry, with the Black Knights (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) winning four of the last five against Navy (3-8, 7-4) after losing 14 straight from 2002 to 2015. The trend of low-scoring games has continued, however, with the UNDER cashing in each of the last 15 meetings and the teams combining to score just 34.1 points per game in those contests.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

This could be the third time in four years that Army is favored by more than a touchdown over Navy, with the Black Knights going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in those two previous contests. But the most notable number in the Sportsbook odds is the total, which is the lowest for any Army-Navy game in the Odds Shark database going back to 1995. The low number enticed early action on the OVER, pushing the total up to 36.5 by the time of writing.

Army News & Notes

The Black Knights are going bowling for the fifth time in six years under head coach Jeff Monken, earning an invitation to face Missouri in the Armed Forces Bowl. Army’s season nearly went off the rails in October when the team lost three straight games following a 4-0 SU start, but the Black Knights recovered by going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their final four contests.

Army’s defense led the turnaround, allowing less than 15 points per game in its last four games after being lit up for 70 points in a loss to Wake Forest. The Black Knights finished the regular season ranked 16th in the nation in total yards allowed and 11th against the run, yielding just 103.7 rushing yards per game.

Offensively, fullback Jakobi Buchanan is the workhorse in Army’s triple-option ground attack, scoring two touchdowns or more in three games this season. Senior quarterback Christian Anderson doesn’t throw it often but is still capable of making big plays, tossing a 34-yard touchdown pass and adding a 50-yard completion in Army’s most recent game against Liberty.

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Navy News & Notes

Even though it’s been a tough season in Annapolis, the Midshipmen come into this game with a bit of momentum. Navy’s 38-14 win over Temple in late November marked the most points the Midshipmen have scored in the past two seasons, while their defense held the Owls to just 11 first downs and 182 total yards.

Slotback Carlinos Acie has been Navy’s most productive rusher lately, running for 86 yards on 10 carries against Temple after putting up a career-high 155 yards in his previous outing. Isaac Ruoss, who led the Midshipmen in rushing yards this season with 608, ran for a pair of scores vs the Owls while senior fullback Chance Warren caught a pair of TD passes.

Although Navy is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as an underdog, this team definitely isn’t built to play from behind. Tai Lavatai led the Midshipmen with just 367 passing yards and was sacked 17 times, and Navy passers combined to complete less than 49 percent of their throws and averaged 6.58 yards per attempt.

How Army Will Cover

Army’s been rolling since the end of October, winning its last three games by an average margin of 28 points. As long as the Black Knights don’t let down their guard and look ahead to the Armed Forces Bowl, they should be able to beat Navy by more than a touchdown.

How Navy Will Cover

Navy needs to play a cleaner game than it did last year, when 53 yards in penalties and a minus-1 in turnovers were too much to overcome in a 15-0 loss. The Midshipmen also need to get more production out of a passing game that completed just one pass for nine yards in last year’s meeting.

Computer Pick: Army -7.5

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