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Razorbacks Favored To Snap Skid Against Auburn

KJ Jefferson & Razorbacks welcome Auburn to town for a massive Week 7 SEC matchup.

Arkansas (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) has dropped two straight after a 4-0 start, allowing 89 points in those losses. The Razorbacks try to get back on track when they host Auburn (4-2, 3-3), which has lost six of its last seven games as an underdog.

Auburn Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks
  • Date/Time: October 16, 12 noon ET
  • Stadium: Razorback Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Arkansas -3.5 | O/U 52.5 (Line History)
  • Auburn vs Arkansas Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

Barring some drastic line movement before kickoff, this will mark just the second time in the last 10 meetings that Arkansas has been favored over Auburn. The Razorbacks were double-digit underdogs in each of the last five years.

Auburn News & Notes

After opening the season with outings of 60-plus points against Akron and Alabama State, Auburn’s offense has sputtered a bit against tougher opposition. The Tigers have not scored more than 34 points in any of their last four games, and they averaged just 18 points in three games against Penn State, LSU and Georgia.

Quarterback Bo Nix, whose school-record streak of 256 consecutive passes without an interception was snapped in last week’s 31-10 loss to Georgia, doesn’t seem concerned. “If we made just a few more plays … we’re capable of hanging in there with that Georgia team,” Nix told the Associated Press after the loss to the Bulldogs.

Still, the offensive issues seem in character for an Auburn team that tends to play lower-scoring games against quality opponents. Auburn has gone UNDER in eight of its last nine SEC games and in 20 of its last 25 as an underdog.

Arkansas News & Notes

A week after being shut out by Georgia, the Razorbacks’ attack bounced back in a big way last week at Ole Miss. Arkansas set a school record for yards in an SEC game with 676, and quarterback K.J. Jefferson threw for three touchdowns while adding three more on the ground.

But it wasn’t enough for the Razorbacks to avoid their second straight loss following a 4-0 SU start — and their defense is the biggest reason why. Arkansas has been lit up for 89 points in its last two games, more points than it allowed in its first four games against Rice, Texas, Georgia Southern and Texas A&M. The Hogs actually held their own against Matt Corral last week, holding the Heisman Trophy contender to 287 passing yards, but surrendered 324 yards on the ground.

Perhaps a return to Fayetteville will help the Razorbacks get things turned back around in the right direction. Arkansas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine at home, and its last six victories at Razorback Stadium have all come by double digits.

How Auburn Will Cover

The Tigers need to prove that they can score consistently against SEC defenses, but facing Arkansas should give them a good chance to do just that. Auburn has scored 45 points or more in five of the last seven meetings and at least 30 in each of the last eight.

How Arkansas Will Cover

If Arkansas can shut down Auburn’s vaunted running game, the Razorbacks should be able to pull away for a comfortable victory. That could be easier said than done, however, for an Arky defense that ranks 99th in the nation against the rush.

Computer Pick: Auburn +3.5

For more NCAAF predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Auburn is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last 7 games as an underdog.
  • Arkansas is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games.
  • The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.