The Oklahoma Sooners have struggled to cover big numbers all season, and they’ve been tasked with another massive point spread this weekend when they host the Baylor Bears. No. 5 Oklahoma had to sweat out a 28-21 overtime victory over Army last week as a 30-point favorite, the third straight time the Sooners failed to cover a double-digit spread following their Week 1 blowout win over Florida Atlantic. Now, the Sooners are 24-point chalk over a Baylor squad they have defeated in nine of the last 10 meetings in Norman. Not only do the Bears come into this contest with momentum from a 26-7 win over Kansas, they’ve also covered the spread in seven of their last eight visits to Oklahoma.
- Baylor is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at Oklahoma.
- Baylor is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road after consecutive home games.
- Oklahoma is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games at home.
Baylor vs Oklahoma Game Center
OKLAHOMA DEFENSE STRUGGLED TO GET STOPS LAST WEEK
Lost in the dramatics of Oklahoma’s OT win over Army last week was how much the Black Knights dominated the time of possession in that ball game. Army’s run-heavy offense held the ball for nearly 45 of the 60 minutes in regulation time, piling up 26 first downs and 339 rushing yards in the process.
Oklahoma’s biggest issue defensively was an inability to get off the field on third down. The Black Knights converted 13 of their 21 third-down opportunities, also making good on four of five fourth-down gambles. The Sooners’ poor performance on third downs dropped them to 79th in the nation on third-down conversion percentage allowed, something that could be exposed once again this week against a Baylor attack that is 14th in the NCAA in third-down conversion percentage.
BREWER STAKES HIS CLAIM AS BAYLOR’S No. 1 QUARTERBACK
Don’t look now, but the Bears might finally have themselves a quarterback again. Baylor has gone with a dual QB system for several years, but sophomore Charlie Brewer handled nearly all of the snaps against Kansas, only relinquishing his duties on Baylor’s final offensive series with the game well in hand.
Completing 19 of 27 passes for 221 yards and running for 56 doesn’t quite conjure up memories of Robert Griffin III, but it should give Brewer plenty of confidence going into Baylor’s first road game of the Big 12 season. In the first half against Kansas, Brewer went 11 of 14 for 151 yards and three touchdowns, adding 58 yards on six carries. He also didn’t turn the ball over, something worth noting considering Kansas entered the game with the best turnover margin in the nation.
WHY THE OVER LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET
Oklahoma only scored 21 points in regulation against Army, but that wasn’t really the fault of the Sooners offense. Oklahoma averaged 7.6 yards per play on the ground and 11.0 yards per pass play, and it drove down the field with ease for the go-ahead touchdown in overtime. The Sooners also saw one of their drives end at the Army one-yard line, and might have scored another touchdown at the end of regulation if they hadn’t settled for a field-goal attempt instead. If anything, the Sooners offense may have been too efficient Saturday. Scoring quickly and putting their tired defense back on the field helped Army’s offense play keepaway throughout, keying the near-upset.
Oklahoma should have no issue moving the ball again against this Baylor defense, but those Sooners’ defensive issues will probably allow Baylor to stay in the game for a while. An inability to get off the field on third down has hurt the Sooners for a while now and is a big reason the Sooners have seen an average of 72.4 points scored in their last five games (going OVER the total in four of them). Both teams are 3-1 to the OVER this season, and I love the chances of those stats improving to 4-1 after this one.
