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Will Baylor and Texas Finally Make Fireworks?

Oddsmakers have expected Texas and Baylor to light up the scoreboard on an annual basis – but for the last five years, the Big 12 and geographical rivals have not complied. Could this be the year? Based on each team’s previous game, we just might see an OVER as the teams do battle Saturday at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium. The Longhorns are coming off an incredible 48-45 win over Oklahoma, while the Bears were impressive in their own right in a 37-34 triumph over Kansas State.

Armed with two of the best offensive attacks in the conference, it’s understandable that this game would have a high total (though it isn’t available yet). But the teams have come in UNDER the number in each of their previous five head-to-head meetings – and in most of those cases, they finished well UNDER. In fact, three of those encounters finished more than 20 points UNDER the number. The host Longhorns are 16.5-point favorites following their third win over a ranked team in their last four games.

SHARK BITES
  • Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after an ATS win.
  • Baylor is 1-7 SU in its last eight conference road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 20 of Texas’ last 26 games.

Baylor vs Texas Game Center

Back to Basics on Defense

There might be some doubters after the Longhorns surrendered a whopping 45 points last weekend, but this defense is still a unit worth watching for both bowl and betting purposes. Going into Saturday’s shootout at the Cotton Bowl, Texas had held its previous four opponents – a list that includes nationally ranked USC and TCU – to an average of 16.3 points.

Expect the Longhorns to rediscover their defensive form after limiting the Sooners to a reasonable 24 points through three quarters before Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray led a spirited fourth-quarter comeback. Texas consistently limited opposing drives over its first four wins on its current streak, allowing no more than 17 first downs in any of those games.

While the Bears boast a top-50 offense, the Longhorns are still in great position to hold the visitors UNDER their team total. One bad quarter vs Oklahoma aside, the Texas defense looks legit.

Baylor Bailing vs the Run

Scoring points isn’t the Bears’ biggest concern going into the weekend. Baylor will almost certainly be looking at the film to see how it could allow a Kansas State team that came into last week ranked 93rd in the nation in rushing to rack up 319 yards on just 35 carries while scoring four touchdowns on the ground, equaling their entire output from the previous four games.

It has been that kind of season for the Bears run defense, which went into Week 6 of the NCAA schedule ranked 83rd in total run defense, having allowed an average of 168 yards on 5.38 yards per carry. Texas entered last week with averages similar to those of Kansas State, but racked up 177 yards and three touchdowns on the ground against the stout Sooners.

Texas’ ability to improve on its moribund rushing game will only make things more difficult for the Baylor defense. Look for the Longhorns to surpass their team total thanks to the ability to put up a more well-rounded offensive performance.

My Pick: Hook ’Em on the Cover

The Longhorns’ last two home games have given fans and bettors a glimpse of what this team is capable of – and were it not for a fourth-quarter letdown against the Sooners, we’d be talking about a Texas team cruising to double-digit victories over three Top 25 teams in a four-game span. Simply put, the Longhorns are the superior team on both sides of the football in this one.

It’s difficult to assess Baylor as a road team in 2018 – we can’t glean much from a 27-20 win over UTSA in Week 2, nor can we put too much stock in a 33-point beatdown at the hands of the Sooners at the end of September. But given how Texas fared against Oklahoma at a neutral site, it’s safe to say that the Bears have work to do if they hope to be competitive.

Texas is playing some of the best football in the country right now, and should cover this one comfortably.

Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after an ATS win.home Baylor is 1-7 SU in its last eight conference road games.away The total has gone UNDER in 20 of Texas’ last 26 games.home
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