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Cowboys Eye Potential Playoff Spot With Big 12 Win

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) are 2-0 SU and ATS over their last two games against the Baylor Bears (10-2, 8-4), including a 24-14 win in Stillwater earlier this season. The Cowboys and Bears clash Saturday at AT&T Stadium in the Big 12 championship game.

Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
  • Date/Time: December 4, 8 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: AT&T Stadium
  • TV Coverage: ABC
  • Opening Odds: Oklahoma State -6.5 | O/U 49.5 (Line History)
  • Oklahoma State vs Baylor Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Cowboys opened as 6.5-point favorites in this Big 12 showdown but have since been bet down to Oklahoma State -5. Heavy action on the UNDER 49.5 points has driven the line down to 46.5 points. The UNDER is 4-2 in the last six games between Baylor and Oklahoma State.

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Baylor News & Notes

Baylor’s 27-24 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders as a 14-point home favorite was a bit closer than the Bears and their fans might have preferred, but a win’s a win. The Bears could be forgiven for having a slight letdown performance after scoring back-to-back upset wins over the Oklahoma Sooners and Kansas State Wildcats in the previous two weeks.

Abram Smith rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries in the win over Texas Tech. Smith has 1,366 yards and 12 touchdowns on 215 rushes this season and has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over the team’s current 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS run.

The Bears will have their work cut out for them on Saturday facing an Oklahoma State rushing defense that ranks fifth-best in the nation, allowing only 91.5 yards per game.

Oklahoma State News & Notes

The Cowboys earned their spot in the Big 12 championship game and kept their hopes for a College Football Playoff spot alive with a 37-33 win over the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday.

Oklahoma State trailed 33-24 heading into the final quarter, but some great play by the defense and two late touchdown drives orchestrated by Spencer Sanders led the team to victory. Sanders finished with 214 passing yards, one touchdown pass and two interceptions, doing most of his damage in the rushing game with 93 yards and a score on the ground.

If Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game, Oklahoma State will in all likelihood end up on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. But if Georgia beats Alabama and the Cowboys beat Baylor, a one-loss Big 12 champion likely gets the nod over two-loss Alabama and one-loss Notre Dame as neither of those teams would have a conference title on their resumes.

How Baylor Will Cover

Baylor and Oklahoma State are built in similar fashion with strong rushing games and defensive play. Their first game was 17-14 late in the fourth quarter before Jaylen Warren sealed the win with a late touchdown. This one should be close late too, and this time Baylor just needs to make the big play on offense or defense to cover.

How Oklahoma State Will Cover

Oklahoma State managed to beat Baylor last time around despite losing the turnover battle 3-0 as Sanders threw three interceptions in the win. A cleaner effort with fewer turnovers this time around should give the Cowboys an inside track to a win and cover.

Computer Pick: Oklahoma State -5

  • Best Spread
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  • Best Moneyline
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  • Best Total
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Shark Bites
  • Baylor is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 December games.
  • Oklahoma State is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs Baylor.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in Baylor’s last 5 games.