Sugar Bowl: Rebels Look To Continue Postseason Success

Ole Miss (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) has been a solid bowl bet for decades, winning eight of its last nine appearances and 12 of 14. The Rebels opened as short favorites over Big 12 champion Baylor (11-2, 9-4), which has covered nine of its last 12.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Sportsbook total of 50.5 was a touchdown lower than it’s been for any other Rebels game this year, and it had been bet up to 55 by the time of writing. Meanwhile, after Sportsbook as an underdog to No. 8 Ole Miss, the sixth-ranked Bears had moved to a 1-point favorite.

Baylor News & Notes

At the time of writing, it was uncertain who the Bears would start at quarterback. With top pivot Gerry Bohanon sidelined for Baylor’s last two games with a hamstring injury, redshirt freshman Blake Shapen stepped in and couldn’t have been much better. Shapen completed 69 percent of his throws for 434 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions in those two contests, including the Bears’ 21-16 win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game.

Whoever starts at QB will be complemented by a running game that averaged nearly 215 yards per game and a defense that led the Big 12 with 16 interceptions. The defense, which allowed just 19.2 points per game, is anchored by hybrid defensive back/linebacker Jalen Pitre, who was the conference defensive player of the year and could be tasked with spying on Ole Miss dual-threat quarterback Matt Corral.

Ole Miss News & Notes

Led by offensive-minded head coach Lane Kiffin and preseason Heisman Trophy candidate Matt Corral, the Rebels entered the season with high expectations. Ole Miss lived up to the hype by producing its first 10-win season in school history, but it wasn’t all on the shoulders of Corral and the offense.

The defense has dramatically improved from last year, when it allowed nearly 40 points per game. Ole Miss has held five of its last six opponents to 21 points or less, with all but one of those games coming in SEC play. Overall, the Rebels have gone UNDER the total in seven straight games and eight of nine.

Corral still did his part, throwing for more than 3,000 yards and rushing for 11 touchdowns despite being hampered by a nagging ankle injury since mid-October. With more than a month to rest the injury between games, Corral should be fully healed for the Sugar Bowl and motivated to raise his already high NFL draft stock with a stellar performance.

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How Baylor Will Cover

Baylor’s running game matches up well against an Ole Miss defense that ranked 102nd in the FBS against the run, allowing more than 180 yards per game. If the Bears can control the clock and keep the ball out of Corral’s hands, they should be live for the upset.

How Ole Miss Will Cover

If Corral’s ankle is fully healed, his mobility would be a big boost for a Rebels attack that hasn’t been as productive in the second half of the season. Corral ran for eight touchdowns in Mississippi’s first five games but just three in the Rebels’ final seven.

Computer Pick: Ole Miss (Even)

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