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Betting line favors Horned Frogs over Mustangs

Southern Methodist MustangsTCU Horned Frogs
1-2September 28, 2013, 12:00 | Amon Carter Stadium1-2

Week 5 action on Saturday will see the Horned Frogs looking to boost their win total and cover the spread when the Mustangs visit Amon Carter Stadium.

The Mustangs will try to spoil to the party on Saturday; they are 0-3 ATS against the number this season, while the Horned Frogs are 0-3 ATS. Southern Methodist is 2-1 on the totals; TCU is 2-1.

View Southern Methodist Mustangs vs TCU Horned Frogs Odds and Stats.

Bettors looking to back the visiting Mustangs in this one found them as 19.5-point Underdog on the opening college football point spread at TopBet. Bookmark the college football odds pages to see where the over under number opens in this game.

The Horned Frogs - Mustangs odds would favor the Mustangs if the lines were set according to power ranks. TCU is rated No. 73 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Mustangs sit at No. 47. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 26-11 win for the Horned Frogs.

Southern Methodist lost its last outing, a 42-13 result against Texas A&M on September 21. Southern Methodist failed to cover in that game as a 27.5-point underdog, while the 55 combined points took the game UNDER the total. Garrett Gilbert handled the Aggies defense in his team's most recent action, throwing for 310 yards, but Southern Methodist still lost to Texas A&M 42-13. Trevone Boykin went over the 100-yard mark (101) in his team's latest effort, but Texas Tech still defeated TCU by a score of 20-10.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up TCU's No. 85-ranked offense (25 PPG) against a Mustangs defense that ranks No. 115 at 37.67 PPG. The Horned Frogs passing attack has averaged 190.67 yards per game, less than the Mustangs give up through the air (315.67 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Mustangs feature the league's No. 3-rated road run defense, allowing 43 yards per game. TCU, meanwhile, ranks No. 94 in rushing offense at home.

A few Mustangs at Horned Frogs trends to consider:
Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Southern Methodist is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Southern Methodist is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Southern Methodist's last 11 games on the road
TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
TCU is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
TCU is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of TCU's last 7 games

Next up:
Southern Methodist at Rutgers, Saturday, October 5th
TCU at Oklahoma, Saturday, October 5th