After winning their first two home games by a margin of 62 points, the Wisconsin Badgers look to continue their home dominance when they entertain the BYU Cougars on Saturday afternoon in a non-conference clash. Wisconsin whipped New Mexico 45-14 last week for its 41st straight September victory in Wisconsin and is a 23-point favorite to win its 42nd against the Cougars, who are licking their wounds from a loss to California that dropped them to 1-1 on the campaign. Wisconsin hammered BYU 40-6 last season as 14-point road chalk, improving to 2-0 in the all-time series. Both of those meetings went UNDER the total, which has been set at 44 for this year's matchup.
- Wisconsin is 41-0 SU in its last 41 games at home in September.
- BYU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games on the road in September.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of BYU’s last 15 games on the road (average combined score of 46.47).
COUGARS OFFENSE SPUTTERING ONCE AGAIN
A lot of the optimism surrounding BYU’s offense after an Sportsbook-week 28-23 upset of Arizona was lost last week with an ugly performance at home against Cal. BYU ran for just six yards in the entire second half of its 21-18 loss to the Golden Bears, failed to score an offensive touchdown until the final minute and turned the ball over twice in the fourth quarter. The Cougars’ other touchdown came on a fumble return by their defense, which also recovered a fumble at the Cal 16-yard line in the fourth, only to see Cougars QB Tanner Mangum immediately turn the ball over on an interception.
Offensive struggles are unfortunately nothing new for coach Kalani Sitake and company. BYU scored the sixth-fewest points per game in all of Division I last year, and it’s hard to imagine things getting any better against a Wisconsin defense that has allowed 17 points in two games.
WISCONSIN BEATING NON-CONFERENCE FOES AT HOME, BUT NOT COVERING
A weak non-conference schedule hurt Wisconsin’s cause for the national playoff last year, and the Badgers are facing similar criticism in 2018 Sportsbook up with home games vs Western Kentucky, New Mexico and BYU.
But regardless of the non-conference slate that Wiscy draws up, you still have to be impressed by how dominant the Badgers have been at home over the years against teams outside of the Big Ten. Last week’s 45-14 win over New Mexico was Wisconsin’s 41st straight home non-conference victory, the longest current streak in the FBS and the fifth-longest in NCAA history.
Unfortunately for Badgers backers, the secret is out on Wisconsin’s home dominance. Despite outscoring Western Kentucky and New Mexico by a combined score of 79-17, Wisconsin is 0-2 against the spread because it was a five-touchdown fave in each of those games. In fact, the Badgers have covered the number just once in their last five home dates against non-conference foes.
WHY THE BADGERS SHOULD COVER
Wisconsin may have covered the spread Saturday against New Mexico if it had simply taken better care of the football. Despite piling up nearly 600 yards of offense in the game, the Badgers led by just three points early in the third quarter after shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook fumbled the ball deep in New Mexico territory to snuff out a promising drive in the second quarter, then gave the ball away again on Wiscy’s first possession of the third.
If the Badgers don’t put the ball on the turf, I like them to cover this 23-point number at home. That’s because their trademark running game is firing on all cylinders once again, rushing for 417 yards last week against the Lobos and ranking sixth in the nation through two games. Wisconsin is one of the few teams in college football that gets even better when it’s protecting a lead, thanks to its ability to both grind down the clock and put up points when pounding the ball on the ground.
