In the wide-open ACC Coastal Division 6-4 North Carolina will try to stay alive in the battle for the division title when it takes on 4-6 Virginia Thursday night in Charlottesville (7:30 pm ET, ESPN).
The Tar Heels, who are only a game out of first in the Coastal even after giving up 68 points to Georgia Tech Saturday, were early five-point favorites over the Cavs, who have won their last two games.
View North Carolina vs Virginia Odds and Stats.
Betting Line: Bettors looking to side with the Cavaliers in this one found them as 6-point underdogs at Sportsbook. The over under number was sitting at 61.5 mid-week over at Sportsbook.
Power Rankings / Prediction: This game matches up the No. 36 (Cavaliers) and the No. 52 (Tar Heels) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 45-25 result in favor of the Tar Heels is predicted by handicapping models.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Virginia's No. 89-ranked offense (24.6 PPG) against a Tar Heels defense that ranks No. 56 at 25.7 PPG. The Cavaliers passing attack has averaged 282.4 yards per game, more than the Tar Heels give up through the air (254.2 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Tar Heels feature the league's No. 61-rated road run defense, allowing 165.2 yards per game. Virginia, meanwhile, ranks No. 113 in rushing offense at home.
North Carolina lost its last outing, a 68-50 result against Georgia Tech on November 10. North Carolina failed to cover in that game as a 8-point favorite, while the 118 combined points took the game OVER the total. Bryn Renner handled the Yellow Jackets defense in his team's most recent action, throwing for 350 yards, but North Carolina still lost to Georgia Tech 68-50.
Last time out for Virginia, they were a 41-40 Sportsbook as they battled Miami at home. Virginia failed to cover in the match as a 1.5-point favorite, while 81 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. In their last game, Virginia's aerial attack generated 300 yards and the Cavaliers came away with a 41-40 victory over Miami at Scott Stadium.
North Carolina Tar Heels Trends:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 5-5
Virginia Cavaliers Trends:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 5-5
A few Tar Heels at Cavaliers trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina's last 7 games when playing Virginia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Carolina's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games on the road
North Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Virginia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against North Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Virginia's last 7 games when playing North Carolina
Virginia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing North Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia's last 6 games
Next up:
North Carolina home to Maryland, Saturday, November 24
Virginia at Virginia Tech, Saturday, November 24
