The Citadel Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide

The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide look to put in a dominant performance against FCS side The Citadel Bulldogs at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama is coming off back-to-back shutout victories over then-No. 3 LSU and then-No. 16 Mississippi State, while The Citadel is on its first winning streak of the season. Alabama has opened as a 51-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 61.5 points.

The Citadel vs Alabama Game Center

Tagovailoa is coming off an injury

This is primarily a tune-up game for Alabama before the Iron Bowl against Auburn next week and the SEC championship game vs Georgia the week after. The big question for the Crimson Tide is how many starters will begin the game and how long will they be in for. The most notable player would be Heisman Trophy favorite quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who left last week’s game against Mississippi State with a right knee injury. Head coach Nick Saban has confirmed that the sophomore QB will start this weekend so the injury isn’t as bad as we may have expected, but how long will he play?

The offense may not be much of an issue anyway as the Crimson Tide defense has been absolutely lights-out recently, coming off back-to-back shutouts over ranked opponents, and yields just 12.7 points per game, tied with Clemson for the best mark in the nation. They also are tied for third in the NCAA with 36 sacks on the season.

Can The Citadel pull off an upset?

The Bulldogs aren’t just facing an uphill battle, but rather they are looking up at Mount Everest. The Citadel relies on its run game, ranking seventh in the FCS, averaging 291.9 rushing yards per game, with five different backs rushing for more than 300 yards this year. Senior Lorenzo Ward leads the backfield, racking up 661 yards and seven touchdowns on 160 carries. They will be in tough against the Crimson Tide, who allow just 96.3 rushing yards per game, seventh-best in the FBS.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have a limited passing attack, attempting just 101 passes all season, completing 46 of those for a total of 811 yards and four touchdowns between their two quarterbacks. Defensively, The Citadel is struggling, surrendering an average of 29.9 points per game, which is 71st in the FCS, while it’s allowing 259.8 passing yards per game, 17th-most in the FCS.

Should you be on the UNDER?

Alabama is tied with Clemson for the fewest points allowed per game in the nation this season at 12.7 and Sportsbook has this week’s total Sportsbook at 61.5 points. The total is 10 points higher than the spread which implies the sportsbooks assume that The Citadel is going to be able to score on the Crimson Tide, a feat that then-No. 3 LSU and then-No. 16 Mississippi State were unable to accomplish. I really have a hard time seeing the Bulldogs mounting any offense in this game as they rely on running the ball but the Crimson Tide surrender the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game this season at just 96.3.

My Take on The Citadel vs Alabama

Alabama is a 51-point favorite in this game, which is the 43rd-highest spread we have in the OddsShark database dating back to 1995 with the highest spread being 62.5. If you were thinking of wagering on The Citadel, don’t, as teams that are dogs of 50 or more points are 0-56. However, they are 33-23 ATS. I don’t feel confident at all in a pick for this game as it comes down to how much does Nick Saban want to run up the score? Is ’Bama going to get up by 40 points and just shut it down and coast to a 40-0 win or is it going to flex its offensive muscles prior to the Iron Bowl next week? I guess I will go with the Crimson Tide covering the 51-point spread.