We all know not to bet the Pitt moneyline in the ACC championship game, but does betting the underdog Panthers make the most sense on Saturday in Charlotte? Clemson has been beating teams by large margins this season, but Sportsbook at a spread of 26.5 points in a championship game shines the light on an unflattering statistic for Tigers bettors. Clemson has only covered the spread once this season in six games as a favorite of 21 points or more and is 2-8 ATS in the same spot since September 2017.
- Clemson is 2-8 ATS as a favorite of 21 points or more since September 2017.
- Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
- Clemson is 29-3 SU in its last 32 games (losses to Alabama, Syracuse and Pittsburgh).
Pittsburgh vs Clemson ACC Championship Game Center
Spread Keeps Climbing
Even as I’m writing this article, the money is pouring in on Clemson with the Sportsbook spread of 20 points already up to 26.5 as of Monday evening. This season, favorites of 25 points or more compiled a 65-83-2 ATS record.
Historically, Pittsburgh has only been an underdog of more than 25 points five times since 1997, covering the spread each time and going 2-3 SU. The Panthers were a dog of more than 21 points only once this season, vs Notre Dame on October 13. That game ended 19-14 for the Fighting Irish.
Common Opponents
Pitt was 8-4 ATS this season and had four opponents in common with Clemson: Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Duke and Wake Forest. Both teams went 4-0 SU in those games. Pittsburgh was perfect against the spread while the Tigers lost ATS to Syracuse and Duke.
| Teams | Georgia Tech | Syracuse | Wake Forest | Duke |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | 49-21 | 27-23 | 63-3 | 35-6 |
| Pittsburgh | 24-19 | 44-37 | 34-13 | 54-45 |
My Best Bet for The ACC Championship
I looked for all the reasons I could find to bet the Panthers as the underdog in this game, but the more research I did, the more it seems to me that Pitt is going to be held under 10 points in this game, so I’m jumping on the Clemson side of the spread.
Pitt’s passing offense compiled a motley 153.4 yards per game this season to finish 120th in the FBS. The rushing attack, led by Qadree Ollison, averaged 232.7 yards per game but those numbers are deceiving. Ollison’s biggest games were against some of the worst rush defenses in the league – Duke (117th), Virginia Tech (103rd) and Penn State (73rd).
When you look at how Ollison made out against top teams, the numbers are a lot less flattering. He gained 49 yards in a 31-point loss to UCF and managed just 50 yards against Notre Dame. So what do we think is going to happen when the Panthers’ O-line and rushing attack comes up against the No. 2 rush defense of Clemson?
Not only is it one of the top defensive teams in college football, Clemson dominated offensively this season, scoring an average of 34.9 points per game on an average of 458 scrimmage yards per game. Since the beginning of October, the Tigers are scoring an average of 51.14 points per game and allowing an average of 12.
Clemson is flat-out dominant right now and could very well blow the Panthers out of the water in the ACC championship.
