Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen (NAVY +7, O/U 40)
Army and Navy will close the regular season in Philly on Saturday, with the 9-2 Black Knights coming in as 7-point favorites. The Linebacker predicts the game will finish with a score of 25.4 - 19.6 in favor of Army, falling closely in line with Vegas’ projection. Our favorite bet from the game stems from the total, however, as we project 45 total points between the two teams. With the current total set at 40 points, The Linebacker suggests a wager of $91 on OVER 40 for a $100 average bettor.
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Why will the total go Over?
- Each team possesses an offense superior to its defense. Army averages 30.8 points per game, while Navy isn’t far behind at 26.3.
- Navy’s defense ranks 109th in the country, having allowed 34.9 points per game. Army’s has been solid this season, allowing just 18.7 points per game, but that success can be partially attributed to its nation-best time of possession, averaging 39 minutes per game (next-closest is 35).
- Navy ranks 122nd of 129 FBS teams with 6.7 yards per play allowed this season. Army ranks 94th with 5.9.
- Despite running the ball on 88.9 percent of its plays, Army’s passing attack has been one of the most lethal in the country. Its 10.5 passing yards per attempt is third in the country behind only Alabama and Oklahoma. Big passing plays could help put points up quickly and swing the total OVER.
- Army and Navy are first and third respectively in run-play percentage in the country. Navy’s defense is ranked 105th in rushing efficiency, allowing 5.1 yards per rush. Army ranks 55th at 4.2 yards per carry allowed, so neither is very adept at stopping the run.
Army vs Navy: How to bet the spread
The Linebacker projects a final score of 25.4 - 19.6 in favor of the Black Knights. With Navy projected to lose by 5.8 and a spread of 7 points, we have a slight play on Navy. The Linebacker suggests a $30 wager on NAVY +7 for a $100 average bettor.
