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College Football Free Pick from Linebacker: Oklahoma vs Alabama

Oklahoma vs Alabama Linebacker Free Pick

Oklahoma Sooners vs Alabama Crimson Tide (ALA -14, O/U 77)

The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will look to advance to their fourth consecutive College Football Playoff championship game by beating the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday night in the Orange Bowl. Alabama comes in with a big edge over the Sooners, listed as the 14-point favorite in this semifinal matchup. Kyler Murray will try to prove he deserved the Heisman Trophy in a matchup against fellow candidate Tua Tagovailoa, but will face the toughest defensive matchup he’s had all season. The Linebacker projects Alabama will win by a score of 51.6 - 30.6, giving us a solid play on the Crimson Tide. We recommend a wager of $133 on Alabama -14 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will Alabama cover the spread?

  • The Crimson Tide rolled over every opponent in the regular season, winning each game by at least 22 points. They come in with the second-ranked scoring offense (47.9 ppg) and fourth-ranked scoring defense (14.8 ppg).
  • Oklahoma has the best offense in college football (49.5 ppg), but its defense has struggled mightily this season. The Sooners rank 96th in points per game allowed (32.4) and are 108th in yards allowed per game (448.1). Their 6.0 yards per play allowed ranks 99th in the nation.
  • Alabama is second in third-down conversion rate on offense, converting at a 52.8 percent clip. Oklahoma’s third-down defense has been atrocious, ranking 112th and allowing 45.2 percent of third downs to be converted. Oklahoma ranks fifth in third-down conversion rate on offense (51.2%), but Bama’s defense ranks eighth in preventing conversions, allowing only 30.9 percent.
  • Oklahoma’s defense has only forced 11 turnovers this season, which ranks 124th among 129 teams. Alabama has forced 21 on the season, while both teams have coughed the ball up 13 times. We’ve illustrated how Oklahoma can’t stop anyone on defense, AND they don’t create turnovers. It’s likely to be a field day for the Alabama offense.
  • The Crimson Tide rank ninth in opponent yards per pass attempt, allowing just 5.9 y/a. Oklahoma ranks 104th at 8.2 yards per attempt.
  • Alabama’s 9.43 percent sack rate on opposing QB dropbacks ranks eighth in the country. Oklahoma has been solid in pass protection, allowing a sack on just 4.46 percent of dropbacks. The best pass-rush team Oklahoma faced this season was Oklahoma State, which reached the QB on 8.10 percent of its rushes. The Cowboys sacked Kyler Murray three times in their matchup, despite Murray only attempting 29 passes.

Oklahoma vs Alabama: How to bet the total

The Linebacker projects a final score of 51.6 - 30.6 in favor of Alabama. With 82.2 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 77, we have a solid play on the OVER in this game. The Linebacker recommends a $122 wager on OVER 77 for a $100 average bettor.