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Week 11 College Football Odds Report

College Football Odds Report Week 11

There are just four Saturdays remaining in the college football schedule and Week 11 has some dynamite games on tap. We are seeing some pretty interesting lines for the AP Top 25 teams, with the tightest line having No. 11 Baylor as a 1.5-point favorite at TCU, while the largest line is No. 3 Ohio State -42.5 at home to Maryland.

The largest line movement among the ranked teams thus far is No. 4 Clemson at NC State going from -31 to -33 for the Tigers, while No. 15 Notre Dame moved two points at Duke from -6 to -8. The largest total movement has come in the marquee matchup of the week, No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama, where the total opened at 63.5 and has risen to 65.

Below is a list of all the spreads and totals for all the ranked games in Week 11:

NCAAF Top 25 Odds: Week 11
GameHome SpreadTotal
Maryland at No. 3 Ohio State-42.563
No. 5 Penn State at No. 13 Minnesota+747.5
Vanderbilt at No. 10 Florida-2648
No. 11 Baylor at TCU+1.551
East Carolina at No. 23 SMU-2370.5
No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama-665
Connecticut at No. 17 Cincinnati-3556.5
No. 20 Kansas State at Texas-6.558.5
No. 22 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+2.564
No. 18 Iowa at No. 16 Wisconsin-938
Missouri at No. 6 Georgia-17.547
No. 4 Clemson at NC State+3353.5
No. 15 Notre Dame at Duke+851.5
Iowa State at No. 9 Oklahoma-1467
Wyoming at No. 21 Boise St.-1348.5
Nevada at No. 24 San Diego St.-17.540

Check out our NCAAF odds page to see the most up-to-date odds for these games and all of the other college matches of the week.

Lines to Monitor

No. 15 Notre Dame at Duke: Opened at -6 (ND), early move to -8

Notre Dame vs Duke Game Center, Line History

TV Coverage: ACCN

Notre Dame has had some lackluster performances over its last three games, earning narrow home victories over USC and Virginia Tech, while getting smashed 45-14 on the road at then-No. 19 Michigan. That said, money is coming in on the Irish in Week 11, moving the line two points from -6 to -8. Duke is on its first losing slide of the season with back-to-back road losses to Virginia and UNC.

The Irish had a streak of four games in weeks 3 to 6 in which they covered all four contests, but they have failed to cover in their last three. Similarly, the Blue Devils covered in three consecutive games in September but are 0-2-2 ATS in their last four. The line movement could be due to the lone common opponent these teams have in Virginia, with the Irish earning a 35-20 win over the Cavaliers, while the Blue Devils were swarmed 48-14 at Virginia.  

No. 20 Kansas State at Texas: Opened at -5.5 (TEX), early move to -6.5

Kansas State vs Texas Game Center, Line History

TV Coverage: ESPN

After a brief two-game losing skid in weeks 5 and 6, the Wildcats have rattled off three straight wins, including a shocking upset at home over then-No. 5 Oklahoma 48-41. Even though Kansas State appears to be peaking, it finds itself as a dog on the road at unranked Texas. The Longhorns had strong efforts in losses to then-No. 6 LSU 45-38 and then-No. 6 Oklahoma 34-27 earlier in the season but a 37-27 road loss to TCU last week knocked Texas out of the rankings.

History hasn’t been on Kansas State’s side recently, with the Wildcats going 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six against Texas, and they haven’t had a road victory over the Longhorns since 2011. In the two most recent meetings, the Wildcats lost by five last year and six the year prior.

Kansas State has been a strong spread bet this season, going 6-2 ATS, while Texas is 4-4 ATS on the season. Of their common opponents in 2019, the Wildcats hold a 3-1 record against Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas and TCU while the Longhorns are 2-2 against those teams.

Key Numbers for Week 11

No. 5 Penn State at No. 13 Minnesota: Opened at -6 (PENN), early move to -7

Penn State vs Minnesota Game Center, Line History

TV Coverage: ABC

A massive clash in the Big Ten has a pair of unbeatens colliding with playoff hopes on the line. The 8-0 Penn State Nittany Lions have taken care of business all season, including wins over then-No. 17 Iowa (17-12) and then-No. 16 Michigan (28-21). As for 8-0 Minnesota, this is the first ranked foe the Gophers have faced all year and they have the 102nd-ranked strength of schedule out of 130 teams thus far. This is a really good test to see what Minnesota really has and I believe that’s why the line has shifted in favor of Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS over their last six meetings with the Gophers but this is the first game between the two since 2016; those six contests came over an 11-year span from 2005 to 2016. Minnesota has been a fantastic spread bet recently, covering in each of its last five, and is 5-2-1 ATS overall this season. As for Penn State, it is 5-3 ATS in 2019 but 3-3 ATS over its last six games.

No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama: Opened at -5.5 (ALA), early move to -6

LSU vs Alabama Game Center, Line History

TV Coverage: CBS

The marquee matchup of the Week 11 schedule has the top two teams in the nation meeting with the No. 1 LSU Tigers and No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide colliding at Bryant-Denny Stadium. LSU is primed for this game with three wins over ranked foes already, earning a 45-38 road win over then-No. 9 Texas and home wins over then-No. 7 Florida and then-No. 9 Auburn. Alabama has had just one game against a ranked opponent thus far, securing a 47-28 road triumph at then-No. 24 Texas A&M in Week 7.

A few interesting things are at play with the line and the total for this game. The Crimson Tide haven’t been favored by 7 or fewer points at home since 2011 when they were 5.5-point favorites to, you guessed it, LSU on November 5, 2011. Additionally, the total hasn’t gone OVER in a meeting between these two teams since 2009, a span of 10 games, and yet we have the highest total since 1997 (as far back as the Odds Shark database goes) and it has risen from 63.5 to 65 points. Lastly, Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury, yet we are seeing the line move more in the Crimson Tide’s favor.