Both Florida International and Arkansas State have struggled in recent playoff games, going a combined 2-7 ATS in their last nine bowl games. One of them has to win, but with both teams recently seeing a lot of games going OVER, even a total of 63 seems tempting.
- Spread: Arkansas State -3
- Total: 63
- Date/Time: December 21, 2 p.m. ET
- Location: Montgomery, Alabama
- Stadium: Cramton Bowl
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- FIU vs Arkansas State Matchup Report & Updated Odds
Camellia Bowl Odds Analysis
Both teams had somewhat disappointing seasons and neither stands out in any particular area, but with Florida International’s struggles away from home, it was Arkansas State that was tabbed as a slight 3-point favorite. These clubs have played to the OVER in 18 of their last 27 games combined, so the total was expected to be high, Sportsbook at 63 points.
FIU News & Notes
The Panthers had five straight losing seasons before hiring Butch Davis as their head coach three seasons ago. Now, they’re playing in their third straight bowl game, led by quarterback James Morgan.
The redshirt senior, who is in his second season with Florida International following two years at Bowling Green, set the school’s single-season mark with 26 passing touchdowns last season. He’s only logged 13 scores this year, as the Panthers slipped from 9-4 to 6-6, sitting second-to-last in Conference USA’s East division.
They have also dropped two of their last three games leading into the New Mexico Bowl, but the one win was against Miami, arguably one of the biggest wins in program history.
Florida International has covered the spread in its last two games but is just 4-8 ATS this season, and the Panthers have struggled away from home — they’re 2-5 in road and neutral-site games this year.
Arkansas State News & Notes
Arkansas State finished the season with a disappointing 34-30 loss to South Alabama, but that didn’t keep the Sun Belt squad from qualifying for its ninth straight bowl game — and second Camellia Bowl in the last three years.
While the Red Wolves haven’t stood out on either side of the ball, they do have a standout player who can change the game single-handedly in wide receiver Omar Bayless.
The six-foot-three senior finished second in the country with 1,473 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season, while adding 84 receptions, good for ninth in the nation. He’s tailed off toward the end of the season, however. After topping 132 yards in six of his first seven games, he only topped 100 yards once in his final five.
He had 129 yards last year in the Arizona Bowl, and he’ll need one final big performance if Arkansas State wants to break its recent trend of going 1-5 ATS in its last six games against Conference USA opponents.
Betting Pick: OVER 63
Neither team particularly stands out in any facet, but they’ve both been playing to the OVER a lot recently. I’m expecting lots of points, so even at a total of 63 I’ll take the OVER.
- FIU is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games in the playoffs.
- Arkansas State is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last 5 games in the playoffs.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arkansas State’s last 7 games when playing as the favorite.
