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Struggling Tigers Big Underdogs To Visiting Gators

Ed Orgeron & LSU welcome Florida into town for a Week 7 SEC showdown.

Things are getting ugly in LSU, where the Tigers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) have lost two straight and find themselves in the basement of the SEC West. LSU is a home underdog to Florida (4-2, 3-3) for the first time since 2009.


Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers
  • Date/Time: October 16, 12 noon ET
  • Stadium: Tiger Stadium
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: Florida -5 | O/U 57.5 (Line History)
  • Florida vs LSU Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers originally opened Florida as a 5-point favorite but doubled the point spread to 10 after LSU’s 21-point loss in Kentucky last weekend. The Gators have been a dangerous team to back lately as road favorites, going 0-5 ATS in their last five.

Florida News & Notes

Quarterback Emory Jones is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing a career-high four touchdown passes in Florida’s 42-0 romp over Vanderbilt last week. Jones was probably in need of a confidence boost with Gators fans constantly calling for freshman backup Anthony Richardson, although Richardson has attempted just seven passes for 33 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception in Florida’s last two outings.

Defensively, the Gators posted their first shutout since 2019 despite allowing as many first downs (18) as their offense generated against the Commodores. Vanderbilt controlled the ball for more than 36 minutes, but came up empty on several red-zone trips and also turned the ball over twice. Florida was playing its third straight game without star cornerback Kaiir Elam and also was without starting defensive back Jaydon Hill.

LSU News & Notes

Calls for the head of coach Ed Orgeron are getting louder following the Tigers’ second straight loss, a 42-21 trouncing at Kentucky. LSU was outgained for the third straight game and for the fourth time in six outings this season and failed to score its first points until midway through the third quarter.

“We got beat at the point of attack,” Orgeron told the Associated Press following the loss.

Things won’t get any easier for the LSU offense if it’s without star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte this week. Boutte, whose nine touchdown catches were the most in the nation going into last week’s action, left the game against Kentucky on a cart after injuring his leg. The Tigers also lost defensive end Ali Gaye to a leg injury.

How Florida Will Cover

By running the ball down the Tigers’ throats. Florida ranks third in the nation with 274 rushing yards per contest, while LSU was gashed for 330 yards on the ground last week against Kentucky. If both trends continue this week, the Gators should be able to pull away.

How LSU Will Cover

With all the negativity swirling around Death Valley these days, the Tigers need a strong start to get the fans back on their side. Tiger Stadium is still a tough place for any team to visit, and LSU has gone 6-3-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2010.

Computer Pick: Florida -10

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Shark Bites
  • Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games.
  • LSU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 at home vs Florida.
  • The OVER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings.