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Free College Football Pick from Linebacker: Kentucky vs Missouri

Kentucky Missouri Linebacker

Kentucky Wildcats @ Missouri Tigers (MIZ -7, O/U 55)

The 12th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats hit the road to face their SEC East counterpart Missouri Tigers on Saturday. Mizzou remains the betting favorite despite being unranked, currently sitting as 7-point favorites against the Wildcats. Linebacker projects Missouri to win the game, but likes UK to cover the spread. Linebacker suggests a $122 wager on Kentucky +7 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will Kentucky cover the spread?

  • Kentucky’s pass defense has the ability to slow down Drew Lock and a Missouri offense averaging 301 passing yards per game (18th in FBS). UK ranks 12th in passing efficiency allowed among FBS teams. Linebacker projects Lock to finish with 255 yards passing.
  • Mark Stoops’ defense has been elite in the red zone this season. UK ranks 3rd in the country in red-zone defense, allowing opponents to score on just 64.7% of their red-zone attempts.
  • Kentucky’s rushing attack should help bleed the clock and limit Missouri’s offensive possessions. Benny Snell ranks 2nd in the FBS with 160 rushing attempts, while UK is 19th in the country with 231.6 rushing yards per game.
  • The Wildcats’ 5.4 yards per rush ranks 16th in the country. Mizzou’s run defense has been solid, yielding 3.7 yards per carry (41st in FBS). Linebacker expects UK to win that battle, projecting the Wildcats to finish with 252.7 yards rushing.
  • Kentucky should also handle Missouri’s offensive rushing output. UK ranks 17th in rushing yards allowed per game (112.0) and 12th in yards per carry allowed (3.4). Mizzou averages a respectable 200.1 yards rushing per game, but Linebacker projects them to finish under that mark with just 169.5 in this one.

Kentucky @ Missouri: How to bet the total

This game currently features an OVER/UNDER of 55. Linebacker’s projected score totals 61.8 points (32.7 - 29.1), giving us a solid play on the OVER. Linebacker suggests a wager of $75 on OVER 55 for a $100 average bettor.

 

 

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