The Boise State Broncos would love to see history repeat itself in more ways than one as they host the Fresno State Bulldogs in the Mountain West championship game Saturday at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos upended 2.5-point favorite Fresno State 24-17 in their previous meeting November 9, part of a six-game winning streak that put Boise State in position to repeat as MWC champion. But to do so, they’ll need to duplicate their success against a Fresno State side that boasts the nation’s second-best scoring defense.
Boise State defeated Fresno State 17-14 in last year’s conference title game to secure its 13th championship since 1996. The Broncos boast one of the most impressive offenses in the nation at 37 points per game, but it was the defense that decided things in their previous encounter against the Bulldogs, with host Boise State limiting the visitors to 3.8 yards per carry and a 2-for-10 success rate on third down. The Broncos are 2.5-point favorites this time around, while the total hasn’t yet been released.
- Boise State is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 home games.
- Fresno State is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games vs teams with winning records.
- The teams have gone UNDER in each of their past four meetings.
Fresno State vs Boise State Game Center
All Hail the Underdog
These teams have undergone significant changes over the years, but for the last half-decade, one thing has remained consistent: the underdog has been the superior play when the Broncos and Bulldogs go head-to-head. The favorite has failed to cover in six consecutive encounters dating back to 2012, when Boise State prevailed 20-10 as a 7-point home fave.
With three of those meetings coming prior to 2015, let’s focus on the last three head-to-head meetings, each of which has taken place over the past 53 weeks. Not only has the underdog covered comfortably in all three games, it has won outright twice: Fresno State won 28-17 on November 25, 2017, as a 6.5-point dog, while Boise State returned the favor in their last showdown.
With Fresno State looking strong in back-to-back home wins over San Diego State and San Jose State since the loss to Boise State, and the Bulldogs having covered four of six road games in 2018, they look like a strong cover option for Saturday’s title game.
Starting With Seven
Boise State kicked off the scoring with a field goal in the last meeting between the teams – but bettors shouldn’t expect a repeat in the Mountain West championship game this weekend. Not only did the teams finish with nearly identical TD-to-FG ratios on the season, their field goal games are both subpar – and neither team will want to leave things in the hands of their kickers.
The Broncos finished inside the top 20 in points per game on the strength of a whopping 59 touchdowns. Boise State added 11 field goals in 12 games, but kicker Haden Hoggarth – whose 35-yarder opened the scoring in their last meeting – had a season to forget, making good on just 11 of 18 attempts while going just 2-for-6 on attempts from 40 yards or longer.
Fresno State was also prolific for the majority of the season, racking up 58 touchdowns against just 11 field goals. But Asa Fuller was even worse than Hoggarth during the year, going just 11 of 19 on his field-goal attempts and 2-for-9 from 40-plus yards. Look at either team to open the scoring with a TD, if the overall “First score: Touchdown” prop doesn’t pay out enough.
My pick: Mountain High, Scoring Low
Oddsmakers haven’t been able to get a handle on the total for these teams, with Boise State and Fresno State going UNDER by an average of 16.9 points over their previous four meetings. And with a conference championship at stake on Saturday at Albertsons Stadium, look for both teams to bring their best defensive effort in what should be a tightly contested game.
Look for oddsmakers to account for the fact that both teams boasted top-25 scoring offenses on the season, which should play into UNDER bettors’ hands. And with the last two meetings between the teams producing an average of 36 total points, I don’t see how this one doesn’t finish UNDER.
