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San Diego State Short Home Favorite Over Fresno State

Defenses have dominated in recent clashes between the San Diego State Aztecs and Fresno State Bulldogs, with each of the last six meetings going UNDER the total. The Aztecs need a victory to maintain their one-game lead over Hawaii for top spot in the West Division of the Mountain West.

Matchup Information
  • Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs (Matchup Report)
  • Date/Time: November 15, 9:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN2
  • Opening Odds: San Diego State -2.5 | O/U 44.0 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

Despite San Diego State (7-2) being three wins ahead of Fresno State (4-5), oddsmakers have made the Aztecs slim 2.5-point home favorites. Fresno State has covered in three of its last four visits to San Diego State and in six of the last eight meetings overall.

Fresno State News & Notes

Fresno’s defensive struggles continued last week in a 37-35 loss to Utah State as a 6-point home favorite. The Bulldogs allowed 26 first downs and 525 yards of offense to the Aggies, with 388 of those yards coming through the air. Fresno State has now allowed 37 points in four of its last five games, going 2-3 during that span.

Offensively, the run game did most of the damage last week for Fresno State as the Bulldogs scored all five of their touchdowns on the ground. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they weren’t as effective running the ball in the fourth quarter, going three-and-out on consecutive possessions to allow Utah State the chance to drive for a game-winning field goal on the final play.

Those late-game struggles on the ground could easily continue this week against a San Diego State defense that is second in the nation against the run.

San Diego State News & Notes

Any Aztecs success this year has come in spite of their offense, which has scored more than 27 points just once in their first nine games. It finally cost them last week at home to Nevada, as the 17-point underdog Wolfpack dealt San Diego State a stunning 17-13 defeat.

A bye week to prepare didn’t do anything to help the attack, which punted on its first three possessions and finished the game with just 113 rushing yards on 39 attempts. “Our offense is having unbelievable struggles scoring,” admitted SDSU coach Rocky Long. “I don’t have the answer or I’d fix it.”

History suggests those offensive woes won’t get any better against Fresno State. San Diego State has scored just 68 points in the last five meetings combined, including a 23-14 loss at Fresno last year.

The UNDER has also cashed in each of the last six meetings between these Mountain West rivals, and in seven of San Diego State’s last nine in conference action.

Betting Pick: Bulldogs +2.5

Home field has not been much of an advantage this year for the Aztecs, who are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in their own stadium.

Shark Bites
  • Fresno State is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 games vs Mountain West opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Diego State’s last 10 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in Fresno State’s last 6 games vs San Diego State.