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NCAA College Football: Picks and Props for Thursday/Friday Games

Games of the Week: College Football Week 14

Man, we had multiple games lined up for Friday and now we are down to just one after games have now been either postponed or canceled. But look, we are in Week 14 and still talking football so grateful, I am.

For the few games we do have, here are some betting options for some game/player props and even a pick:

Louisiana Tech -1 @ North Texas, OV/UN 66.5

This line opened with LA Tech as a 3-point favorite and the total at 66. My first question is why the line move? My best guess is perception. The Bulldogs have not played a game since October 31 when they routed UAB in a 37-34 win in double overtime. Since they have had two games postponed and two games canceled. The Mean Green have also had breaks in their schedule but they have played in back-to-back weeks including a big 49-17 loss at UTSA last week.

This UNT defense is not good. In fact, they are second-worst in all of college football when it comes to total defense. They are giving up an average of 529 yards per game, 6.8 yards per play, and 43 points per game. They are bottom ten in takeaways, bottom 10 in opponent first downs, and bottom 20 in allowing third-down conversions.

LA Tech may have some scheduling issues but they have held their own against some good teams, including a 35-17 loss to Marshall where they were able to put up 7.6 yards per pass. Against UTSA (who UNT just got hammered by) LA Tech lost 27-26 keeping the Roadrunners below their average in total yards, yards per pass, and yards per rush.

One thing North Texas does have going for them: their pass rush. However, seven of their 20 total sacks came against Rice. Unfortunately for LA Tech, quarterback Luke Anthony has been sacked 17 times. Fortunate for LA Tech, Aaron Allen, who splits time at the quarterback position is looking to be a better fit for this matchup.

I’m going to look to fade this UNT defense. LA Tech’s leading receiver Adrian Hardy has opted out for the remainder of the season, so next in line is Smoke Harris to get the load of the work. North Texas has allowed a receiver to catch 100 yards or more in nearly every one of their games and this could be another spot. I do also think this total is too high. LA Tech may not have the best defense but they are good enough to keep North Texas in check and if that Mean Green pass rush is effective, it could create some three-and-outs.

Consider: LA Tech -1, LA Tech UN 66.5

Prop: Any team to score 40+ points: No (-114), Smoke Harris OV 59.5 receiving yards

Air Force -11.5 @ Utah State, OV/UN 51

This line opened 10.5 with the total at 50. This is a perfect example of extreme strength versus extreme weakness. Utah State is ranked 101 in rushing yards allowed, giving up an average of 203 yards per game. They are 103 in opponent yards per rush attempt allowing an average of 5.1 yards per rush.

San Diego State ranked 24th in the country, rushed for 407 yards and 7.7 yards per rush. To Nevada and Boise, who are both bottom 20 in rushing yards, were able to rush for 4.3 and 4.9 yards per rush, respectively. Fresno State, who averages 38 rushing yards per game, rushed for 120.

Well, Air Force is the number one rushing attack and I think this very much plays out like the San Diego State game. Utah State lost 38-7. The Falcons have six players that have rushed for 100 yards or more for a combined 12 rushing touchdowns, including both quarterbacks Haaziq Daniels and Warren Bryan but their number one is Brad Roberts, who has 280 rushing yards, four touchdowns…and he’s played just one game.

Nine of his 28 attempts went for touchdowns or first downs. Utah State does have a good pass rush but of course, Air Force has a top-five offensive line so I can definitely see quarterback Daniels making some ground moves in this game, too.

Pick: Air Force -11.5

Props: Brad Roberts OV 167.5 rushing yards, Haaziq Daniels OV 49.5 rushing yards

UL Lafayette @ Appalachian State -3, OV/UN 51.5

This game is my Guys and Bets pick of the week so if you want to see which side I am, check it out on the Odds Shark YouTube channel. Looking just from a prop perspective, I was hoping that rushing yards would be available as an option but unfortunately, it is not.

So, I had to dig a little deep. These options are going to be a bit of a flyer so bet lightly.

Between these two teams, there are a combined nine defensive/special teams touchdowns. Specifically, there is one punt return touchdown, three kickoff return touchdowns, and five-interception/fumble touchdowns. Now the one caveat, looking back at this matchup, since 2014, there has only been one of these to occur but this season you have teams that are solid on turnover scoring and strong run games that have allotted the ability to score off punts or kickoffs. Worth a shot at plus money, I think.

Another option is the longest touchdown. The line is set at 54.5 but App State has either hit this or allowed this number on seven occasions. Lafayette has hit this or allowed this on five occasions. Similar to the last point, however, in their last six meetings, this has happened just once but you have two really solid offensive teams on the tail end of their season. Perhaps the defense lets up a bit.

Props: Defensive or special teams touchdown, Yes (+175), Longest touchdown OV 54.5 yards (-112)