In a long-anticipated matchup, Georgia (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) takes on Alabama (11-1, 6-6) in the SEC championship game on Saturday. The Bulldogs finished off their regular season with their third shutout, while the Crimson Tide survived a four-overtime thriller vs Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Georgia is seeking its first SEC title since 2017 and Alabama is trying to become the SEC champion for the third time in the last four years.
Opening Odds Analysis
Georgia’s dominant season and historically good defense and Alabama’s troubling play recently is evident in the opening spread, though Alabama’s brand and Nick Saban’s presence on the sideline clearly is weighing on the minds of oddsmakers. With that said, Georgia -6.5 feels like a good opportunity for bettors to get some value.
Georgia News & Notes
Looking for their first SEC championship since 2017, the Bulldogs have been waiting for this game all season. Georgia will also look to remain unbeaten as one of just two teams remaining without a loss in the FBS – Cincinnati is the other.
Georgia has been hands-down the most dominant team in the FBS. The Bulldogs’ top-rated defense allowed just 6.9 points per game, while the offense was sixth in the country in piling up 40.7 points per game. They outscored their opponents 488-83 thanks to that combination for a whopping plus-405 margin.
Alabama News & Notes
Early in the season, the Crimson Tide were winning in usual fashion with large margins and looking like a well-oiled machine. However, after a victory over Tennessee on October 23, their next three wins over SEC opponents all came by just one score, two of them against barely bowl-eligible Auburn and LSU.
Those results make it likely that Alabama will not secure a spot in the College Football Playoff without a win in the SEC championship game. If the Tide are able to beat Georgia, they would earn their third SEC title in the last four seasons. However, a loss will probably leave them out of the CFP for just the second time.
How Georgia Will Cover
The Bulldogs have an obvious path to cover here by following the same path they have followed all year: play great defense, capitalize on field position and limit mistakes. If they do that, they will win their first SEC title since 2017 and enter the CFP as the top team.
How Alabama Will Cover
Alabama’s run game will be crucial to help ease the pressure on quarterback Bryce Young, but the Tide are no doubt going to have to rely on the no-huddle offense if they want to get some big plays. If they can score in the high 20s, they will have a great shot to win the game.
Computer Pick: Georgia -6.5
For more college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.
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