Saturday’s Raycom Media Camellia Bowl at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, is an ornithologist’s dream, as the Georgia Southern Eagles take on the Eastern Michigan Eagles. Georgia Southern rode a potent triple-option offense to its second-ever FBS bowl game, and will be looking to remain unbeaten after beating Bowling Green 58-27 in the GoDaddy Bowl in 2014. Eastern Michigan makes its fourth bowl appearance, with its only win coming in the 1987 California Bowl.
The key matchup here will be whether Eastern Michigan can slow a Georgia Southern rush attack that produced nearly 261 yards per game, good for ninth in the country. On the plus side, Eastern Michigan was no stranger to ground-heavy game plans, with FBS opponents running the ball against them more than 61 percent of the time, one of the 10 highest rates in the country. Georgia Southern is a 1-point favorite – it opened as a pick’em – with the total set at 47.5.
- Georgia Southern is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Eastern Michigan’s last nine games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of Georgia Southern’s last six games.
Georgia Southern vs Eastern Michigan Game Center
Red-Zone Advantage: Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern ranked inside the top 50 in Division I in points per game at 31.1 despite throwing the football on less than 20 percent of its offensive plays. One major reason for that: the team was virtually unstoppable in the red zone, producing 29 touchdowns and eight field goals on 40 trips for a 92.5 percent success rate that ranked fifth nationally.
By comparison, Eastern Michigan had more than its share of struggles inside the 20-yard line this season. Eastern Michigan scored one fewer red-zone touchdown than Georgia Southern on nine additional visits, while settling for 10 field goals and going scoreless 11 times. Its 77.6 percent red-zone success rate ranked 111th in the country.
In a game with a total below 50, every red-zone opportunity becomes even more pivotal – and with Georgia Southern enjoying a colossal offensive advantage when these teams get deep in opposing territory, it’s hard not to see the favorites as the superior cover choice against an Eastern Michigan team that squandered plenty of red-zone chances.
Eastern Michigan’s Third-Down Troubles
Consistent red-zone inefficiency isn’t the only thing plaguing Eastern Michigan heading into Saturday’s Camellia Bowl encounter with Georgia Southern. Let’s consider the season-long kicking struggles of freshman Chad Ryland, who converted just 12 of 20 field-goal attempts (including a downright abysmal 4-for-13 from 30-plus yards).
And then there are the problems Eastern Michigan has had converting third downs into extended drives or points. The team made good on just 32.9 percent of its third-down chances during the season (56 of 170), ranking ahead of only nine other Division I schools. Georgia Southern held opponents to 39.1 percent on third down.
Missed field goals and failure to convert third-down opportunities will mean great potential field position for Georgia Southern, which should lead to more scoring opportunities. It also doesn’t help that Eastern Michigan has allowed teams to gain five or more yards on better than 51 percent of their carries. Look at Georgia Southern to surpass its team total of 23.5 in this one.
My Pick: EMU Eagles Dive Below the Total
With so many things working against its offense in this one, I can’t see how Eastern Michigan gets to its team total of 23.5. Eastern Michigan’s field-goal kicker is unreliable, the team doesn’t score enough points in the red zone, and they’re going to have their hands full even getting the ball back against a Georgia Southern team averaging better than five yards per carry.
Look for Georgia Southern to use its ever-dangerous option attack to keep the ball out of Eastern Michigan’s hands for long stretches. And even when Eastern Michigan has the football, it would need everything to go right in order to remain competitive. Given what I’ve outlined above, I just don’t see them doing that – so I’m confidently taking the UNDER on the team total.
