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Horned Frogs host Bears in Week 14 action

Baylor BearsTCU Horned Frogs

The Baylor Bears had their bubble burst last Saturday, losing badly at Oklahoma State. With the loss BU dropped to No. 9 in the BCS standings, but it's still got a chance to win the Big 12.

The Bears will have to win out, starting Saturday with their battle at TCU, and get help from Oklahoma, which plays the Cowboys in two weeks.

Baylor had been rolling along, racking up huge offensive numbers as it reached No. 4 in the BCS rankings. But the Bears got rolled Saturday at OSU 49-17, ceding the advantage in the race for the Big 12 title to the Cowboys.

Baylor needs to win its last two games, and have Oklahoma State lose the Bedlam game in a couple weeks, to win the conference championship.

The Bears this week run into a Horned Frogs team that's looking for a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. TCU lost 33-31 at Kansas State two weeks ago, then had last week off.

As of early this week Baylor, which lost to the Frogs last year 49-21, was favored by 13 points for Saturday's game according to Bovada.

This season the Horned Frogs are 4-7 overall and 3-8 ATS against the number, while the Bears are 9-1 and 8-2 ATS. As for the totals, TCU is 5-6 on the OU, and Baylor is 7-3.

View Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs Odds and Stats.

Bettors going with the Horned Frogs in this game found them listed as 14-point underdogs on the betting line at Sportsbook.ag earlier in the week.

The game pits the Horned Frogs, currently No. 70 in our OddsShark NCAAF Power Rankings, against the Bears, who rate No. 2 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 52-29 victory for the Bears.

Last time out for Baylor, they were a 49-17 loser as they battled Oklahoma State on the road. Baylor failed to cover in the match as a 7.5-point favorite, while 66 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. In their last game, Baylor's aerial attack generated 359 yards but it was the Cowboys coming away with a 49-17 victory over Baylor at Boone Pickens Stadium. The Horned Frogs suffered a Week 12 loss against Kansas State in their last game, falling 33-31 at Snyder Family Stadium.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up TCU's No. 92-ranked offense (23.91 PPG) against a Bears defense that ranks No. 22 at 20.6 PPG. The Horned Frogs passing attack has averaged 220.64 yards per game, more than the Bears give up through the air (215.1 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Bears own the league's No. 96-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 211.67 yards per game when on the road. TCU, on the other hand, rates No. 112 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

A few Bears at Horned Frogs trends to consider:
Baylor is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Baylor is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baylor's last 6 games on the road
TCU is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
TCU is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of TCU's last 7 games
TCU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Next up:
Baylor home to Texas, Saturday, December 7th