Three hundred and sixty-five days after defeating San Diego State 42-35 to capture the 2017 Armed Forces Bowl, the Black Knights return to the campus of Texas Christian University to defend their title against the Houston Cougars. The Cougars finished second in the American West Conference and had the No. 4 scoring offense in the nation behind Oklahoma, Alabama and Utah State. Army is a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 60.
- Houston starting QB D’Eriq King is out with a knee injury.
- Army went 8-0 SU and 4-4 ATS in its last eight games of the season.
- Houston has the No. 4 scoring offense (46.4 ppg) and No. 106 scoring defense (34.4 ppg).
Houston vs Army Armed Forces Bowl Game Center
Run, Forrest, Run!
This version of the Army football team doesn’t have Private Gump available to them, but they do have a ground attack that accumulated 3,555 rushing yards in 12 games. Amazingly, QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. only passed for 956 yards on 90 pass attempts this season.
Due to this approach, Army leads the nation in time on the field for the offense, thus doing a better job of keeping its opponent’s offense on the sidelines than anyone else. A literal offense-is-the-best-defense approach.
This could be bad news for Houston, which has the No. 97 rush defense at nearly 200 yards against per game and will be missing Ed Oliver, an NFL prospect who has decided to sit this one out.
King’s Absence is a Huge Issue for Houston
D’Eriq King was injured in the second-last game for Houston and the junior QB is out for the season. His season ended with him ranked No. 7 in the nation in QB rating and tied for fifth with 36 passing touchdowns.
In Houston’s final game of the year, and first without King, the Cougars were crushed 52-31 by Memphis to round out the season 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four. Freshman Clayton Tune will be under center on Saturday and he comes in with a 44.7 completion percentage, seven touchdowns, two picks and six sacks.
Since the King injury, Tune is 24-for-58 for a 41.4 percent completion rate. There’s not a lot of optimism that he will be able to do much damage against Army’s No. 14 scoring defense, which ranks in the top 20 against both the pass and the run.
My Best Picks for The Armed Forces Bowl
I like Army to win on the spread and also UNDER 60 points in this one. First, on the total – I think the number is set as a reflection of Houston’s offensive output prior to the King injury. Given that the Cougars are using a backup quarterback and the Army offense will be squandering clock on every possession, asking this game to get above 60 is a tall order. Just one Army game got OVER 60 points this year, a 31-30 win over Miami-Ohio.
With that, I think Houston’s greatest strength, its ability to play high-scoring games and get away with it by outscoring teams, will be neutralized by Army’s methodic game plan. Without getting multiple chances to throw the deep ball, Houston will be limited in its ability to score points.
For more bowl season betting info, check out OddsShark’s Bowl Betting Central.
