Wisconsin was spanked last weekend by the Michigan Wolverines, dominated in every facet of the game. But fortunately for the Badgers, they’re in great position to wind up on the opposite side of a one-sided result as they entertain the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday. The Badgers come into this one favored by nearly four touchdowns as they look to bounce back from that 38-13 drubbing at the hands of the Wolverines. The Illini are also reeling after a 46-7 home thumping courtesy of Purdue.
The key matchup in this one will be standout Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor facing off against an Illinois run defense that has been gashed for an average of 194 yards per game on the ground. Taylor was limited to 12 carries for 73 yards due to injury in last year’s meeting, one of only four games in which he didn’t gain 100-plus yards. Taylor has picked up right where he left off, kicking off the 2018 campaign with six consecutive 100-yard games while scoring eight touchdowns. The total is set at 56 points.
- Wisconsin is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games vs its conference.
- Illinois is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games vs its conference.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Illinois’ last eight games on the road.
Illinois vs Wisconsin Game Center
Big Spreads = Big Problems
Wisconsin has seen some truly gigantic spreads this season. Saturday marks the fifth time this season that the Badgers will be favored by 17 or more points – and if this game turns out the way the others have, Illinois will be a strong cover option despite having lost each of its previous eight games in the head-to-head series by an average of 17.8 points.
The Badgers saw spreads of -36.5, -35.5 and -23.5, respectively, in season-Sportsbook games against Western Kentucky, New Mexico and BYU. Wisconsin proceeded to beat the Hilltoppers and Lobos by 31 points each before dropping a 24-21 decision outright to the Cougars. The Badgers barely failed to cover their other big spread, earning a 17-point win over Nebraska as an 18-point fave.
It’s a familiar theme for the Badgers, who are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite of 17 or more points. The Badgers don’t have the offensive versatility to routinely cover large spreads and can’t be trusted to do so Saturday against an Illini team that battled Wisconsin to a 14-point loss as a 28.5-point underdog in last season’s meeting.
Red-Zone Powers Collide
While the Badgers don’t look like a great cover option here, they’ll still score their points – after all, they might have the top running back in the nation on their roster. Taylor has been electrifying so far in 2018 as he continues building his Heisman Trophy resume – and his inside-the-20 prowess has Wisconsin boasting one of the best red-zone rates in the nation.
The Badgers have made 21 trips to the red zone in 2018, and have put up points on 20 of those possessions (16 touchdowns, four field goals.) And while just four of Taylor’s nine rushing touchdowns have come inside the red zone, he has impressed with a 4.6 YPC average inside the opponent’s 20-yard line after posting a 3.3 YPC average as a freshman in 2017.
Illinois has boasted a formidable red-zone defense this season, limiting foes to 14 scores on 18 possessions. But none of those teams had Taylor and given how prolific they’ve been with him in the lineup – his other five scores have come from outside the red zone, remember – there’s a great chance that a Wisconsin touchdown will cash the Sportsbook scoring play prop.
My Pick: This One’s Going Under
Wisconsin has been a poor cover bet as a large favorite, but it has also been a strong UNDER play in that span. The Badgers are 3-6 O/U in the last nine games as a favorite of 17-plus points, with the three OVERS during that stretch going above the total by a combined 6.5 points. And Illinois is also riding a totals trend, cashing the UNDER in six of its previous nine games as an underdog.
Last year’s meeting was a low-scoring affair that featured 78 rush attempts and 50 passes. Look for a similar ratio between two elite rush attacks – and that makes the UNDER the superior play here.
