The No. 17 Penn State Nittany Lions return home to Beaver Stadium to take on the No. 18 Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday, with the Nittany Lions Sportsbook as a 4.5-point favorite. Both teams are coming off wins in Week 8 – Penn State’s first since Week 4 and Iowa’s third in a row. This week's matchup has an Sportsbook total of 53 points and the last five meetings between these two schools in Happy Valley have had an average combined score of 29.2.
- Iowa is 0-4 SU in its last four games vs Penn State (avg. losing margin: 15.75).
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Iowa’s last five games on the road vs Penn State.
- Penn State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home.
Iowa vs Penn State Game Center
Iowa’s suffocating defense leading to wins
Iowa is a ranked team once again for the fourth straight season and at No. 18 it is the highest ranking for the Hawkeyes since they were ranked 13th in Week 2 of the 2016 season. The team is on a three-game winning streak after falling 28-17 to then-No. 18 Wisconsin in Week 4, outscoring their opponents 113-47 during this current streak.
The Hawkeyes have a remarkable defense that has allowed their offense to be on the field for longer periods of time and rack up some points. Iowa surrenders an average of 14.1 points per game, which is the fifth-fewest in the nation and includes a rock-solid run defense that allows an average of just 79.6 rush yards per game, tied for the third-fewest in college football. Its pass defense has given up an average of just 178.6 yards per game, which is the 19th-fewest in the NCAA.
Penn State relies on its run game for success
The Nittany Lions were rolling through the first four weeks of the season and scoring at will en route to a 4-0 record. Penn State then dropped its next two games against then-No. 4 Ohio State (27-26) and Michigan State (21-17), but got back on track with a 33-28 win over Indiana in Week 8. Those two defeats are the only games in which Penn State hasn’t scored 30 or more points.
Penn State has scored an average of 42.6 points per game, which ranks in a tie for ninth in the nation, with its main attack coming on the ground where it averages 240.7 rush yards per game, ranking 13th in college football. The Nittany Lions run game is led by junior running back Miles Sanders, who has gained 772 yards on the ground – 15th-best in the NCAA – with eight touchdowns. Additionally, senior quarterback Trace McSorley has rushed for 554 yards and eight touchdowns as well.
Should you be on the UNDER this week?
There are trends pointing toward the UNDER between Penn State and Iowa and Sportsbook has this week's matchup Sportsbook at 53 points. Over the last five meetings between the two schools in Happy Valley, the total has gone UNDER four times with an average combined score of 29.2. Meanwhile, Iowa has had an average combined score of 44.7 through its seven games this season, going UNDER in three of those games. Iowa has a tough run defense and when Penn State played Michigan State’s similar run defense, the Nittany Lions could only muster 17 points in a 21-17 loss so I think their offense will struggle again and you should be on the UNDER.
My take on Iowa vs Penn State
I like the UNDER 53 points for the matchup between Iowa and Penn State. In addition to the points above, the Hawkeyes have gone UNDER 53 points in six of their last games with an average combined score of 45. Lastly, since 1999 only two meetings between these two schools have gone OVER 53 points out of 14 games, with an average combined score of 39.86.
