Johnnie Lang

Cyclones, Longhorns Look to Keep Big 12 Title Hopes Alive

A berth in the Big 12 conference championship game could be on the line when the surging Iowa State Cyclones visit the Texas Longhorns on Saturday night in Austin. Iowa State (6-3 overall, 5-2 Big 12) has won five straight games to stay in contention for the conference title, the most recent a 28-14 victory over Baylor that moved the Cyclones to No. 18 in the AP Top 25 rankings. No. 13 Texas (7-3, 5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a dramatic 41-34 win at rival Texas Tech, scoring the winning touchdown in the final minute.

With West Virginia and Oklahoma going into this week’s action one game ahead of Texas and Iowa State in the Big 12 standings, the loser of this contest will be eliminated from conference title contention. The Longhorns are a 3-point favorite to beat Iowa State for the 13th time in the last 15 meetings.

SHARK BITES
  • Iowa State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road.
  • The UNDER is 21-9 in Texas’ last 30 games (avg. combined score: 53.57 points).
  • The UNDER is 13-4 in Iowa State’s last 17 games (avg. combined score: 45.88 points).

Iowa State vs Texas Game Center

CYCLONES STAR RUNNING BACK MIGHT MISS THE FIRST HALF

One key storyline to follow for this contest is the playing status of Iowa State running back David Montgomery. The Cyclones star was ejected in the third quarter of last week’s game against Baylor after throwing a punch at Bears linebacker Greg Roberts, and Big 12 rules mandate that a second-half ejection means having to sit out the first half of the following game as well.

As of Sunday night, it was unclear whether Iowa State planned to appeal Montgomery’s first-half suspension, but it seems a pretty safe bet that any appeal would fall on deaf ears anyway. If the Cyclones are without their top rusher (Montgomery is averaging the second-most yards per game in the conference) for the Sportsbook 30 minutes, they might suffer a significant drop in production relying on Kene Nwangu (31 carries for 121 yards this season). It’ll also put more pressure on quarterback Brock Purdy, who has completed 68.6 percent of his passes for 13 touchdowns and two interceptions this season.

On the other hand, Montgomery’s absence could have a galvanizing effect on the Cyclones. Montgomery tweeted an apology Saturday night but added that he would “defend my brothers no matter what,” and Iowa State coach Matt Campbell lauded his star after the game for being a leader.

LONGHORNS FORTUNATE TO PULL OUT WIN AT TEXAS TECH

Although the Longhorns held the powerful Texas Tech offense to just 10 points in the first three quarters last week, things quickly fell apart for Texas in the final frame. The Red Raiders scored 17 points in a five-and-a-half-minute span in the fourth to tie the game before Longhorns quarterback Sam Ehlinger threw a 29-yard touchdown with 21 seconds left for the game-winning score.

Even when Texas Tech wasn’t putting up points in the first three quarters, the Red Raiders were moving the ball with ease. Kliff Kingsbury’s bunch racked up 595 total yards in the game, 454 of those coming through the air, and averaged 4.3 yards per carry on the ground. The Red Raiders also made seven trips into the Texas red zone, but shot themselves in the foot with three turnovers and a failed fourth-down attempt that set up a Longhorns touchdown.

After limiting four of five opponents to 17 points or less, the Longhorns have allowed an average of 38 points per game in their last three.

EXPECT THIS GAME TO GO DOWN TO THE WIRE

It’s been a roller-coaster season in Texas, with the Longhorns losing their season opener as 12.5-point favorites at Maryland, then reeling off six wins in a row before dropping two of their last three. But if there’s been a constant about the Longhorns’ campaign, it’s been their tendency to play close games. Each of Texas’ last six games has been decided by a touchdown or less, and the Horns’ three losses have come by a combined margin of nine points.

Iowa State hasn’t been blown out yet either, covering the spread in two of its three defeats and staying within 10 points in all of them. With the Cyclones covering six of their last seven on the road and Texas on an 0-5-1 ATS run at home in November, taking points with the underdog is the only way I can look in this contest. (Iowa State +9 would also make for a great leg on a 6-point teaser.)

Iowa State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road.away The UNDER is 21-9 in Texas’ last 30 games (avg. combined score: 53.57 points).home The UNDER is 13-4 in Iowa State’s last 17 games (avg. combined score: 45.88 points).
Back to Top