A three-game winning streak has vaulted Iowa State (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) to the top of the Big 12 standings. However, Texas (5-2, 2-4-1) can narrow the gap with a win over the Cyclones, who they’ve beaten in 13 of the last 16 meetings. The Longhorns opened as 1-point home favorites.
- Date/Time: November 27, 12 noon ET
- Stadium: Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
- TV Coverage: ABC
- Sportsbook Odds: Texas -1 | O/U 61 (Line History)
- Iowa State vs Texas Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Longhorns haven’t been home underdogs since last September vs eventual champion LSU, but they might be this week. Oddsmakers opened Texas as slim 1-point chalk, although early action moved Texas up to -2 at some books by Sunday night. Since 2000, the Longhorns are 3-8 SU and 2-8-1 ATS as home favorites of 3 points or less.
Iowa State News & Notes
Late-season struggles have spoiled some promising seasons for the Cyclones lately, but they’re showing no signs of repeating that trend this year. Iowa State produced its most dominant effort of the campaign last week against Kansas State, blowing the Wildcats off the field in a 45-0 rout. Iowa State outgained Kansas State 539-149 in yards as it improved to 6-1 in its last seven games following a season-Sportsbook loss to Lafayette.
Quarterback Brock Purdy was remarkably efficient against Kansas State, completing 10 of his first 12 passes for 156 yards and three touchdowns. However, running back Breece Hall continues to be Iowa State’s offensive catalyst. Hall scored touchdowns on runs of 33 and 21 yards en route to finishing the game with 135 yards on 13 carries. He has run for at least 130 yards in each of Iowa State’s last seven games and is averaging 6.5 yards per carry on the season with 15 touchdowns.
Expect the Cyclones to lean on Hall once again this week on the road, where Iowa State tends to play lower-scoring games. Iowa State has gone UNDER the total in 13 of its last 17 games away from Ames, with those contests seeing an average of 46.2 points scored.
Texas News & Notes
The Longhorns offense has been a fast starter this year, averaging nearly eight points more in the first half than in the second. However, Texas may not be at its best early in this one. The Longhorns haven’t played since a 17-13 win over West Virginia on November 7, due to a bye week and the postponement of a road game against Kansas.
Several teams in a similar situation last week struggled offensively early in the game before hitting their stride, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if Texas isn’t sharp from the Sportsbook kick.
Fortunately for the Longhorns, their defense comes into this week in strong form, especially at home. Texas has allowed 16 or fewer points in three of its four true home games this year, including the win over West Virginia in which the Longhorns held the Mountaineers to 43 rushing yards. The previous week, Texas limited Oklahoma State star running back Chuba Hubbard to just 72 yards on 25 carries.
Betting Pick: UNDER 61
Texas can hold Iowa State’s strong ground game in check, but the Longhorns offense may struggle early in its first game in three weeks. With so much on the line in this late-season clash, look for the defenses to lead the way in a hard-fought, low-scoring battle.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Iowa State’s last 17 road games.
- The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings (avg. combined score: 31.8).
- Texas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games against Iowa State.
