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Jonny Knows Picks: College Edition Week 10

The calendar turns to November and I always find wins get a little tougher to come by later in the season. 

Let's see what we can do. I went 4-7 last week with my column picks and I'm 39-26 overall on the season. (Check me out @JonnyOddsShark on Saturdays also.  I usually have some more info & plays throughout the day.)

TCU AT Baylor -7.5, 69

-Most of the money is on TCU here. News usually has a big impact on the betting and the new reports on the sexual allegations about the Baylor football team seems like the whole world is cheering against the Bears right now
-I think we might see Baylor come up big this week and then have a letdown next week against Oklahoma
-This Baylor defense is far better at home than it is on the road – 12.1 points per game against. 
-TCU has failed to cover four in a row and this offense has stalled with struggling QBs Kenny Hill and Foster Sawyer against some not so great defenses also. 
Pick: Baylor 

Notre Dame at Navy +7.5, 65 (in Jacksonville)

-Notre Dame fell under the number by one point last game which was one of my most annoying beats of the year. 
-This Notre Dame defense is improving dramatically since it fired Brian VanGorder after the Duke loss 
-Gave up just 266 yards and 18 points over its last 3 games after giving up 461 yds per game over its first five games
-Navy can score and they aren’t quite as one-dimensional as they used to be but they give up 40 points per game. 
Pick: Notre Dame -7.5

Florida at Arkansas +4, 47  

-Florida has covered nine of the last 10 meetings 
-Really surprised that over 60 percent of the action is on the Pigs here. Think sharper money just likes the home dog
-Florida’s defense is just way too good for Arkansas. No. 2 scoring defense, No. 2 against the pass in the nation.  
-Arkansas has given up 45 points per game to its last 4 SEC opponents. Florida is going to use its running game to soften an Arkansas defense that gives up over 220 yards on the ground per game. 
Pick: Florida 

Alabama at LSU +8.5, 45.5 

-Any time a really strong defense is getting points at home, those are spots I really like to play and in this case I think LSU is getting way too many. LSU has the No. 4 scoring defense in the country. 
-LSU is averaging almost 42 points per game since it fired Les Miles and I think we’re looking at a completely different team than we saw earlier in the season
-So much publicity on Alabama 
Pick: LSU 

Nebraska at Ohio State -17, 52.5

-Ohio State has failed to cover four in a row and you can see why with the big numbers like this one that they have to lay. Laying 17 points to a top-10 opponent. 
-I think they get it done, though. I think Nebraska may have a bit of a hangover after that heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin in overtime 
-Over 80 percent of the bets are on Nebraska which surprises me a little bit so this is a bit of a contrarian play. 
-I don’t think Nebraska is quite as good against the run as their numbers suggest. They gave up almost six yards per carry against Wisconsin last week and they gave up 336 yds rushing to Oregon this year. Ohio State owns the No. 8 rushing offense in the nation.  
-Urban Meyer loves November.  He’s 15-1 in November with Ohio State and 47-8 in his career. 
Pick: Ohio State and Nebraska UNDER 18 points 

Air Force at Army  -2, 47 

-One of the biggest line moves of the week after Army opened at +3 
-We don’t really know who’s going to start at QB for Air Force. Starter Nate Romine suffered an ankle injury in last week’s win over Fresno. Sophomore Arion Worthman prefers to run the ball so that could keep Army on its toes 
-Air Force allows 110 yards rushing per game and key to this one is stopping the Army run. 
Pick: Air Force +2

Other picks I like: 
UConn +10.5 (Friday)
Oregon +17 
Utah State +3 1st half 
Minnesota -17 

Follow me on Twitter on @JonnyOddsShark

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