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Jonny Knows Picks: College Edition Week 2

It was a ho-hum start to the college football season with a 4-4 record in Week 1. 

I’ll tackle my picks for the biggest games on the board here each week. I’ll break down more games, picks and college betting topics every Saturday morning on Periscope at 9:30 a.m.  @JonnyOddsShark

Now, as UNLV would say … On to Idaho … 

Louisville -9.5 at North Carolina

Betting stat: Louisville has failed to cover in five straight games

This line opened at 5.5 and “blowed up” to 9.5 or 10 so you can see how these Louisville lines inflate like the MetLife blimp. And I’d love to love the Heels here if it weren’t for their defense. UNC owned the best defense against the pass in the ACC last season and made Cal look like the best throwing team in the nation in Week 1. That’s not good against the current Heisman Trophy favorite. 
Pick: Louisville 

Fresno State +43.5 at Alabama 

Betting stat: Alabama is 26-15-1 against the spread (63.4%) as the road team under Nick Saban and 32-35-1 ATS (47.8%) as the home team. 

Alabama lines get big at home and the big money knows it. The Tide were bet down from -45 when this one opened. I also like that 40-point-plus dogs cover at 53.1 percent over the last 10 years and Fresno State is coming off a 66-point performance last week, albeit against Incarnate Word. 
Pick: Fresno State

Auburn +5.5 at Clemson 54 O/U

Betting stat: Auburn’s last six games played UNDER. 

The ACC was easily the worst bet of the power conferences last week at 5-9 against the spread. I think bettors recognized the inflation on this conference because of all the hype from last year and quickly smashed this line down. All the talk has been about these two offenses the last week but these are two powerhouse defenses, especially on the lines. Clemson has won 17 straight at home in September. 
Pick: UNDER 54

Georgia +4.5 at Notre Dame 

Betting stat: The UNDER is 15-6 in Georgia’s last 21 games and 8-3 in its last 11 road games. 

Reports say Georgia freshman QB Jake Fromm is a special kind of youngster who picked up this offense in record time. I’m betting on him being able to handle things in South Bend. I like this Notre Dame O-line but I think Brandon Wimbush is in for a rough day against a Georgia defense that is strong at every position. 
Pick: Georgia (I think 57.5 is a pretty high number too)

Oklahoma Sooners +7.5 at Ohio State

Betting stat: Buckeyes are 17-19 ATS as the home team under Urban Meyer and 14-9 ATS as the road team.  

Baker Mayfield was nearly flawless last week in a half of football. I really like the Sooners getting more than a TD here. Ohio State could need some more time to find a rhythm on offense under new OC Kevin Wilson. 
Pick: Oklahoma  

Stanford at USC -6

Betting stat: Stanford has won and covered the last three meetings.

This line opened at 10.5 and got smashed way down. I like Stanford at that early number and I like USC at this one. I think Sam Darnold bounces back from his worst game yet but USC needs to get better on D in a hurry with some new faces there. I think both teams get some points and if there isn’t a little revenge playing on USC’s mind, there oughta be. 
Pick: USC -6

Boise State at Washington State +10.5 

Betting stat: Boise State covers at 43 percent as the home team last 10 years and 64 percent as the visiting team.

See that betting stat? Boise State is one of the easiest teams to handicap for me because they are inflated on the blue turf and they play well away from home with better lines. So when they’re getting double digits on the road, that’s usually a green light. 
Pick: Boise State +10.5