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Jonny Knows Picks: College Edition Week 3

I don’t like to brag unless somebody is listening so thanks for joining me for another instalment of my college picks column. 

I blew the slate out of the water last week with a 7-0 performance with my column picks to push me to 11-4 ATS (against the spread) on the season. To review – I tackle the biggest games of the week here and you can catch me for more picks and game analysis on Periscope on Saturdays at 9:30 a.m. ET. 

I believe I also nailed every lean I had on Periscope for all but two other games this week also, so just sayin’ it’s probably worth it to tune in. Let’s move on to this week’s slate, which is lean for the biggest contests…   

Tennessee at Florida -4.5, 49.5

Betting stat: Tennessee is 1-11 straight up in its last 12 games against Florida. 
I called the outright upset on radio here with my pal Tyler Wyatt at 1180 WVLZ in Knoxville on Thursday and I’m sticking to it. This line opened way too high at 8 points so keep that in mind before you make any plays. The Vols O-line has been solid so far, leading to decent QB play and an excellent run game. I just don’t know how Florida is going to score enough to keep up. 
Pick: Tennessee +4.5 

Clemson at Louisville +3, 58 

Betting stat: Louisville is 0-5-1 against the spread in its last six games. 
Louisville is getting lots of love here. The Cards are the home dog. Lamar Jackson is now the clear-cut Heisman fave. And there’s the comparison to last year’s game against Florida State early in the season where the Cards crushed ’em as home dogs. The problem here is Clemson’s defense is just too good, especially at the line of scrimmage. The Tigers have 11 sacks so far (No. 2 in the nation) and rank 22nd in the nation against the run. Louisville is in trouble. 
Pick: Clemson 

Texas at USC -16, 67.5

Betting stat: Eight of the last nine Texas games played UNDER. 
USC has now won 11 games in a row going back to last year and I never like to bet against a team that just keeps knocking down wins like that. USC should be able to torch this Texas defense and the Trojans should win the battle on both lines. My one worry here is that it could be a letdown spot for USC with a revenge win over Stanford last week at home and a road game at Cal on the horizon next week. I think they win but not sure if it’s enough to cover. 

LSU at Mississippi State +7.5, 51.5

Betting stat: LSU is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 meetings vs. Miss State. 
Mississippi State fans are praying they can stop the embarrassing eight-game winning streak that LSU trots into Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday. I’m torn with this one. I have to go with the underdog but I don’t feel great about it. You have to stop the run against LSU and Miss State has done that against mediocre opponents this year. Nick Fitzgerald is also playing great football so I’ll go with the dogs getting more than a TD here. 
Pick: Mississippi State +7.5   

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news, check out our new podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check us out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.