This column has never been more aptly named than it is right now.
I went 3-1 with my column picks last week and I’m now 14-5 against the spread on the season.
To recap: I handicap the biggest games of the week here and use this column as your best betting friend for the big TV games. I also address all my personal plays for the week with a bunch of other games in my weekly college Periscope on Saturdays at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Let’s go. (P.S.: I will add another game or two to this through the week.)
TCU at Oklahoma State -11.5, 69
Betting stat: 12 of Oklahoma State’s last 14 home games have gone OVER.
And no frigging wonder. This is the nation’s most dangerous aerial assault right now, if you ask me, and it’s not just Mason Rudolph to James Washington. Seven receivers have at least five catches and five of them have touchdowns for the Cowboys this year. TCU has a solid QB in Kenny Hill too so I’m not overthinking this one here.
Mississippi State at Georgia -6.5, 48.5
Betting stat: Mississippi State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after winning as a dog.
This line opened at 3 and I think it’s moving incorrectly and it now strikes me as just way too high. I can’t see it going to a TD and if it does, it won’t stay there long. I think bettors are overreacting a little to the letdown factor here for this Miss State team after trouncing LSU last week. I don’t buy it. They have the far better QB in Nick Fitzgerald and they have a solid defense too. I see this one as a possession battle but I give the edge to Miss State there with the No. 11 rushing offense in the nation and a front seven that has 6.5 sacks and ain’t bad at stopping the run.
Pick: Mississippi State +6.5
Notre Dame at Michigan State +5, 54
Betting stat: Notre Dame ran for just 57 yards in last year’s 36-28 loss to Michigan State.
Michigan State has had two weeks to prepare for this one and I think they are being seriously underestimated here. They have a balanced attack and rank eighth in the nation in time of possession. This is a solid defense also that can handle Notre Dame’s rush attack and Brandon Wimbush looked like an unsure passer when he’s had to drop back. If I’m right, this will be the last chance to get great value on Michigan State this season.
Pick: Sparty +5
A&M vs. Arkansas at AT&T stadium +2.5, 56.5
Betting stat: A&M is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings. Four of the last six meetings have gone OVER. There has been at least 887 yards of offense in each of the last six meetings.
A&M can’t seem to play two halves of football this season and there’s talk of Kevin Sumlin’s job being on the line … Arkansas gave up 195 rushing yards to TCU and this was a sore spot for them last year. A&M likes to run the ball so I think they’re in tough here.