Rats. My first losing week with my column picks. I went 2-3 and that makes me 18-10 against the spread on the season.
Let’s not waste any time and we’ll get right to Week 6.
Reminder that I cover some of the biggest TV games in my column here and I go over my personal plays for the week along with several more games on my weekly Periscope show (9:30 a.m. ET Saturday).
Miami at Florida State +3, 48 (opened -1) – 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Another game that opened with the wrong number – in part because Florida State has won the last seven meetings – and bettors pounced to drive it to Miami -3. Florida State was fortunate to get past Wake last week after giving up 17 tackles for a loss. That’s a category where the Canes defense ranks second in the nation, not to mention 10th in sacks. The ’Noles have a banged-up O-line too with starting left tackle Derrick Kelly suffering a leg injury last week. Not good against Miami.
LSU at Florida -4, 46.5 – 3:30 p.m. on CBS
Tough game here. LSU’s offense is stuck in the mud and the Tigers are switching back to Matt Canada’s offense with more shifting and different looks. Danny Etling is a little banged up but it sounds like LSU will likely have Derrius Guice back to help out. Florida’s Feleipe Franks looked very comfortable filling in last week for Luke Del Rio. We’ll see how he does against this defense. LSU has covered six of the last eight of these matchups.
West Virginia at TCU -13, 69 – 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1
Feels like a lotta points here. West Virginia isn’t the same team we saw in Week 1 when Virginia Tech handled them somewhat comfortably throughout the game. Will Grier has gotten better every game, doesn’t mind running a little if he has to. I think that’s what you need against a physical TCU team that is solid all over the field.
Pick: West Virginia
Michigan State at Michigan -10.5, 41.5 (opened -13.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
This is the easiest game to handicap in the world. You take Michigan State every year and shrug your shoulders if it doesn’t come through for the first time in 10 years. And I’m a #GoBlue guy. Sparty has covered the last nine meetings and now Michigan is laying double digits with their backup quarterback, John O’Korn, starting. These ones are usually close no matter where these teams sit in the standings.
Pick: Michigan State
Washington State at Oregon +2, 61 (opened even, 65.5) - 8 p.m. on FOX
Oregon’s all-time rushing TD leader Royce Freeman is banged up with a shoulder injury but starting quarterback Justin Herbert is definitely out with a broken collarbone. That most likely leaves things in the hands of freshman Braxton Burmeister because senior backup Taylor Alie also got injured last week. This isn’t good against a Wazzu defense that has tons of speed and an offense that features one of the most efficient QBs in the country in Luke Falk.
Pick: Washington State