I went 5-3 with my picks last week. Had a few other winners on Twitter too. Now 26-9 over the past four weeks.
Hope the luck doesn't run out this week. Picks below. (You can also check out my full weekend football betting preview with Clay Travis on Outkick The Coverage right here.)
West Virginia at Texas Tech pick, 83
-Texas Tech offense: 2nd in nation in total O (649 yds/gm), first in 1st downs, 2nd in third-down conversion
-WVU ranks 110th in third-down conversion defense, 114th in the nation in sacks
-Highest total on the board this week. Opened at 84.5 but I think that’s a mistake to see UNDER money here
-Texas Tech has scored over 60 pts per game in its last 9 home games
-Texas Tech is 4-1 against the spread and 4-0 ATS in all four meetings (2012 to 2015)
-West Virginia 1-10 ATS in last 11 games against teams with a winning record
-Mountaineers defense gives up a lot of yards (418/gm) but not a ton of points (20/gm). Not sure they’ll be able to keep Texas Tech out of the end zone, which ranks 17th in red zone offense in the nation.
-Red Raiders have scored at least 10 points in 16 of 20 quarters
-Early game, 11 a.m. Central time which I don’t think helps WVU any
Pick: Texas Tech, OVER
Alabama at Tennessee +12, 57.5
-Bama No. 6 scoring offense and No. 11 scoring defense
-Bama 13th in country in turnovers gained
-Leads nation in defensive touchdowns with 7; that's three ahead of second-best Ohio State
-Bama has won the last nine meetings and covered 7 of last 10
-Vols giving up 34.7 points over their last three games
-Tennessee coming off crushing defeat to A&M
-Vols outscored 62-17 in first half this season
-Tenn QB Joshua Dobbs has thrown 8 interceptions
Pick: Alabama 1H -7
UNC at Miami -7, 64.5
-Total moved up from 60 so money pouring in on OVER
-It's sounding like Miami QB Brad Kaaya will play despite shoulder injury
-Miami has some significant injuries on offense and defense and coming off a crushing loss where a blocked extra point was the decider
-UNC No. 23 passing offense in the nation
-Brutal stretch of schedule coming up for Miami with UNC, Va Tech, Notre Dame
Pick: UNC
Ole Miss at Arkansas +7.5, 67
-Arkansas has covered the spread the last three meetings and I think they are getting too many points again
-An inexperienced Razorbacks O-line has been a weak spot for the Hogs but I think they’ll be fine against an Ole Miss defense that gives up 215 yards/gm on the ground and ranks 89th in the nation in sacks
-Austin Allen is a solid QB and tossed for over 400 yards against an outstanding Alabama defense last week
-Rebs have scored 30 or more points in their last 9 games so I expect a higher-scoring game here
Pick: Arkansas
Ohio State at Wisconsin +10.5, 44
-No. 1 and No. 2 red zone scoring defenses in the country
-Badgers are 2nd least penalized team in the nation
-Over 60 percent of the action so far is on Ohio State and that’s way too much with a double-digit spread on the road
-Ohio State 6-0-1 ATS last seven meetings
-Wisconsin is just a team that gets underestimated week after week. Covered the spread all three times as underdogs this season.
-Wisconsin has the No. 6 rushing defense in the country
Pick: UNDER
Stanford at Notre Dame -3, 54.5
-McCaffrey’s status is up in the air
-Still I like Stanford even though the Irish have covered the last three meetings
-Notre Dame defense really can’t get after the QB with only 3 sacks this season. Allow 181 yds rushing.
-Think Stanford’s O-line will be able to establish itself and stay on the field as long as possible.
Pick: Stanford
Other picks:
Akron +11 vs. Western Michigan – Akron passing game should be enough to cover a big number here.
Western Kentucky +3 at Middle Tennesee – Love the speed of this Western Kentucky team.
Washington State -7 vs. UCLA – Bruins worst run defense in Pac-12. Mike Fafaul may start at QB with Josh Rosen injured.
Oregon State +9 vs. Utah – Utes are down to a sixth-stringer at running back and fourth-stringer at center. Too many points to cover on the road with those injuries.
Arizona State +13.5 at Colorado – Colorado is a perfect 6-0 ATS this season and think this line might be a little inflated. QB Manny Wilkins is expected to play for Sun Devils. Think we might see Zona State money come in closer to kickoff.
Follow me on Twitter @JonnyOddsShark
