It’s been a special season so far.
I’m now 23-10 against the spread with my column picks after going a perfect 5-0 last week. My personal plays on Periscope are also 37-19 against the spread this season and my Great White Shark plays are 13-4 ATS.
Hope to keep it rolling through Week 7.
Reminder that I cover some of the biggest TV games in my column here and I go over my personal plays for the week along with several more games on my weekly Periscope show (9:30 a.m. ET Saturday).
Texas Tech at West Virginia -3.5, 79 (opened -6.5) – noon ET, ESPNU
I took West Virginia last week and talked about them in my weekly Periscope show. This is an underrated team right now that has gotten steadily better. Only two losses have come in close ones against solid competition in Virginia and TCU. WVU has the better run offense and Texy Tech has the better run defense here. But the Mountaineers might have played their best run-D game of the season against TCU and held the Frogs to their worst third-down performance of the season. West Virginia has lost nine straight to ranked teams so I think that motivating factor will keep them from a letdown this week after a tough loss. Texas Tech is also 5-0-1 ATS this season, which is the reason this line isn’t higher but I feel that’s a mistake.
Oklahoma at Texas +8, 64.5 – 3:30 p.m., ABC
The Longhorns have covered four in a row in this matchup as underdogs while the teams have traded wins the last five years. Texas ranks second in the nation in defensive TDs and fourth in net punting – a factor that may come into play in this one because I think this game will be close. The Horns D has gotten steadily better all season along with the passing game. This matches up well against an Oklahoma defense that I think is a little soft and ranks 79th in the nation against the pass.
Auburn at LSU +6.5, 44.5 (total down from 47) – 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
I took LSU last week but they hung on for dear life to beat an undermanned UF team. Part of the reason they jumped out to a lead is they had more motion and shifting on offense now that OC Matt Canada is allowed to do his job. The Tigers won’t have that element of surprise against a tenacious Auburn defense and I think we’ll see a few picks against a struggling quarterback situation for LSU. Auburn has scored more than 40 points in three straight games and QB Jarrett Stidham looks better every week. Thought Auburn would be favored by more here. Home field can’t save LSU.
Utah at USC -13, 54 – 8 p.m. ET, ABC
This line opened at 11 and the early money is on USC. Thing is, I won’t be shocked if Utah wins this one straight up. USC is in a bit of a weird spot where they are 5-1 but it feels far worse because they are 1-5 against the spread. This week QB Sam Darnold was complaining about the vanilla approach of the offense, which is a key reason USC has gone UNDER in five straight games. Utah has speed on both sides of the ball and I think this line is inflated because it’s a revenge spot for the Trojans. I think it’s too many for a Utah team that keeps getting too many and is 4-0-1 against the spread this year.
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