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Jonny Knows Picks: College Edition Week 8

Time for another week of college picks. 

Hope you also listen to the weekend football preview show I do every week with Clay Travis on Outkick The Coverage. We often talk about a few extra games on the show that I don't have listed here. The picks in my column are the ones I bet myself every week and I'm on a bit of a run at 32-15 over the past five weeks. I went 6-6 last week. 

Good luck with your wagers. 

Oregon at California -3, 89.5 (Friday)

  • This is the highest college football total of all time. Previous high was 89 for Baylor-Texas Tech last year  
  • We’ve had 10 totals of 80 pts or higher this year and the O/U is 6-4. Highest of all time is 6-4 
  • Teams combine to score about 80 points per game
  • Both rank among the six worst scoring defenses in college football 

Pick: OVER 

N.C. State at Louisville -19.5, 65

  • Not a lot of respect for an NC State team that almost upset Clemson on the road last week
  • NC State is 5-1 against the spread but they are in the middle of a brutal schedule run here – ND in a hurricane, at Clemson, at Louisville
  • Wolfpack QB Ryan Finley only has two turnovers this season and they have a really balanced offense and a great defense that ranks top 20 in scoring D in the nation  
  • Louisville highest-scoring team in the nation and they are going to have to find a way to score plenty to cover this number 
  • This line is as high as it is due to the letdown factor after a devastating loss to Clemson last week where NC State missed a short field goal at the end of the game that would’ve won it 
  • What happens on the ground could decide this game. Third-best rushing offense in the country with Louisville and best rushing defense in the conference with NC State 

Pick: NC State  

Texas A&M at Alabama -18.5, 58.5 

  • Another game where I just think way too many points are being given away
  • Alabama top 10 scoring offense, top 10 scoring defense, 7 starters have scored a touchdown on defense this season 
  • But the Aggies are in a really good spot here coming off a bye. They lead the SEC in total offense and rushing offense and I really think that’s the key here. That has a lot to do with their offensive line, which has been outstanding all season and only allowed six sacks all year 
  • Dual-threat quarterback in Trevor Knight for A&M and a defense that allows fewer than 20 points per game 

Pick: A&M 

TCU at West Virginia -6.5, 65

  • TCU has been one of the worst bets of the season at just 1-5 against the spread. That’s despite a 4-2 record, so this is a team that’s been overvalued all season
  • Worried about the letdown factor here after a big win over Texas Tech on the road last week for West Virginia 
  • Several key injuries for TCU to starting center and a couple of key receivers but coming off the bye could have them in OK shape 
  • West Virginia has the better defense but the bye week and the letdown factor have me cautious. Think there will be a bunch of points here

Pick: OVER  

Arkansas at Auburn -10, 55.5

  • I called Arkansas to upset Ole Miss last week but I’m looking the other way here
  • At first this line looks like way too many points but when you dig into the numbers it actually makes sense 
  • Remember – there is no such thing as a trap game! 
  • Auburn defense allows 16 points per game and Arkansas defense allows 27 points per game 
  • Similar offense except Auburn is much more balanced and has the far better running game
  • Eagles No. 10 scoring defense in the nation and No. 12 rushing offense. That’s what the SEC is all about 
  • Auburn is also one of the best bets in the country at 5-1 against the spread

Pick: Auburn   

Mississippi at LSU -7, 60.5

  • LSU at night. Fournette is back. New offense under Ed Orgeron. No surprise this line is on the move upward
  • LSU has scored over 40 points last two games but that was against Mizzou and Southern Miss
  • I’ll take Ole Miss plus the points. Chad Kelly is coming off his worst performance of the season against Arkansas and I don’t think he’ll be that bad again 
  • Ole Miss has scored 30 or more points in 10 straight games and I just don’t see LSU scoring enough to cover this number 
  • You may want to look at Ole Miss in the first half also as they try to work Fournette back in the offense

Pick: Ole Miss  

Colorado at Stanford -2, 49.5 

  • I am assuming McCaffrey is going to start for Stanford and if he doesn’t, I love Colorado so keep an eye on this one as game time approaches 
  • Stanford is two different teams with McCaffrey and without and they even made Notre Dame’s leaky defense look adequate last week without him  
  • The Buffs are the best bet in the nation and the only remaining undefeated team against the spread at 7-0 ATS

Pick: Colorado  

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