After rebounding from a rare conference loss with a convincing win at TCU, the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (6-1 overall, 3-1 Big 12) return home to face the 3-4 Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday in Norman. Oklahoma routed the Horned Frogs 52-27 last week, easily covering as 7.5-point road chalk and bouncing back from a 48-45 loss to Texas that was just the Sooners’ second in their last 30 games vs Big 12 competition.
Oklahoma’s also had no shortage of success against Kansas State in recent years, winning nine of the last 11 meetings. However, the Wildcats have a long history of success following their bye week under veteran head coach Bill Snyder, covering 22 of their last 29 after having a week off. Oklahoma is a 23.5-point favorite, the most points it’s been favored by against Kansas State in the last eight meetings dating back to 2009.
- Oklahoma is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games at home.
- Kansas State is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games against Oklahoma.
- Kansas State is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games following a bye week.
Kansas State vs Oklahoma Game Center
SOONERS DEFENSE SHOWS IMMEDIATE IMPROVEMENT UNDER NEW DC
It was just one game, but the Oklahoma defense looked a whole lot better last week against TCU in its first game under interim defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill. After getting shredded for 48 points and 501 total yards by Texas in their last game under former DC Mike Stoops, the Sooners held the Horned Frogs to just 275 total yards in their 52-27 victory at Fort Worth. And although TCU did put up 27 points in the loss, one of the Frogs’ touchdowns came on a kickoff return while the other two came in a three-minute span after TCU changed quarterbacks.
“We played much closer to what we’re capable of,” Oklahoma head coach Mike Riley said of his defense, which also limited TCU to 5-for-15 on third- and fourth-down conversions.
If the Sooners can get their stop unit into shape, you’ve got to like their chances at winning their fourth straight Big 12 title. Oklahoma’s offense is firing on all cylinders right now, having scored 45 points or more in three straight games and five of seven this season.
K-STATE HISTORICALLY DANGEROUS AFTER A BYE
There are a lot of things about legendary Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder’s approach that other college coaches should want to emulate. But if there’s one strategy in particular that opposing coaches might want to borrow, it’s how Snyder approaches bye weeks.
Rather than taking a mental break and resting their bumps and bruises, the Wildcats always treat the bye week as if it were any other week during the season. They practice just as often as they would if they were preparing for a game that weekend, and they put in the exact same hours. They even show up at their home stadium early on Saturday morning, then scrimmage against each other.
This approach has worked marvellously for Snyder and the Wildcats over the years. Kansas State is 22-7 ATS all-time following a bye week (and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after a week off). Snyder’s been in charge of the program through most of that span – he retired from 2005 to 2009 – so this long-term trend of success after a bye isn’t stale or outdated. It’s also worked well against Oklahoma, with the Wildcats winning outright in each of their last two trips to Norman when enjoying a bye the previous week.
I’M TAKING THE POINTS WITH KANSAS STATE
This Wildcats team isn’t anywhere near as strong as other squads Bill Snyder has coached over the years, but I can’t ignore the veteran coach’s history of success in this spot. In addition to thriving after a bye week, Snyder and the Wildcats have excelled in the road underdog role for years, covering 21 of their last 26 when catching points away from home.
Oklahoma’s defense looked a lot better last week, but it’ll take more than one decent game to convince me that the Sooners can stop opponents with any sort of consistency. After a slow start to the season offensively, Kansas State has put up 65 points in its last two games, and I think they score enough against Oklahoma’s 96th-ranked defense to stay within this 23.5-point spread.
