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Kentucky Tries To Get Back On Track Vs Mississippi State

Kentucky (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) tries to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it returns from a bye week to visit Mississippi State (4-3, 4-3). The home team has won the last six meetings, but the Wildcats opened as 1-point road favorites.

Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
  • Date/Time: October 30, 7 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field
  • TV Coverage: SEC Network
  • Opening Odds: Kentucky -1 | O/U 47.5 (Line History)
  • Kentucky vs Mississippi State Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

If Kentucky closes as a favorite, it will be the first time the Wildcats have laid points at Mississippi State since 2008. The Bulldogs are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against the Wildcats, with each of the last three victories coming by 15 points or more.

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Kentucky News & Notes

The Wildcats have had a week off to prepare for Mississippi State following their first loss of the season, a 30-13 setback to Georgia. Ironically, the 17-point defeat seemed to impress voters in the AP and Coaches Top 25 polls, both of which moved Kentucky up two spots to No. 12 in their latest rankings.

However, coach Mark Stoops didn’t take much consolation in the defeat, a game in which Kentucky scored a late touchdown to cover the 21.5-point spread. “(Our players) know that we can compete and play better than we did,” Stoops told the Associated Press. “They know we belong, and we have to regroup.”

Even with their SEC championship game hopes dashed, the Wildcats still have plenty to play for down the stretch. In fact, this trip to Mississippi State looks like the toughest remaining game on their schedule, leaving Kentucky with a great shot at finishing 11-1 SU and playing in a New Year’s Six bowl game.

Mississippi State News & Notes

Coming off a 40-point loss at Alabama, the Bulldogs bounced back last week to beat Vanderbilt by nearly the same margin, trouncing the Commodores 45-6. Quarterback Will Rogers padded his SEC-leading average by throwing for 387 yards and a career-high four touchdowns, completing passes to 13 receivers.

However, Rogers also threw a pair of interceptions — and would have had three if one hadn’t been called back on video review. The quarterback also threw three picks the previous week against Alabama, and if he can’t start taking better care of the ball, it could prove costly against the Wildcats.

Mississippi State’s defense held Vanderbilt to 155 total yards — including just nine on the ground — as the Bulldogs went UNDER the total for the fifth time in their last six games. A few recent trends point to another lower-scoring game this week as well. The UNDER is 12-2 in Mississippi State’s last 14 home games, and the Bulldogs have gone UNDER in each of their last four meetings with Kentucky.

How Kentucky Will Cover

The Wildcats proved last time out that their record is no fluke, improving to 6-0-1 in their last seven SEC games with the cover against Georgia. As long as there’s no hangover lingering from the first loss of the season, Kentucky should have a good shot at bouncing back with a win and cover.

How Mississippi State Will Cover

Mississippi State’s defense can keep the Bulldogs in almost any game, so it’ll come down to Rogers and the offense — particularly how well they can avoid turnovers. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, Kentucky’s defense has recorded just three takeaways this year.

Computer Pick: Kentucky -1

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Shark Bites
  • Kentucky is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 SEC games.
  • Mississippi State is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 home games.
  • The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.