The Kentucky Wildcats rode a sensational defensive performance to a premium spot on the bowl schedule. But the 14th-ranked Wildcats will meet their match Tuesday when they tangle with the No. 12 Penn State Nittany Lions at the Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. The Wildcats finished in the top 10 in Division I in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game against, but labored on offense and might struggle to keep up with a Nittany Lions team that excelled at both ends of the field.
For as much attention as the Trace McSorley-led Penn State offense gets, it’s the defense that made waves, particularly down the stretch. The Nittany Lions limited their final three opponents to a combined 20 points, punctuated by a 38-3 drubbing of Maryland in their final regular-season game on November 24. Penn State comes into this one as a 6.5-point favorite, up from a -4 open. The total for the Citrus Bowl is on the conservative side, sitting at 47.5 – down only slightly from its opener of 48.
- Penn State is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 games.
- Kentucky is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games after consecutive wins.
- The total has gone UNDER in Penn State’s last four games.
Kentucky vs Penn State Citrus Bowl Game Center
In Snell We Trust
Kentucky’s best shot at keeping things close rests on the shoulders of dynamic running back Benny Snell. The junior powerhouse has been one of the program’s most dependable offensive options, racking up double-digit touchdowns in each of his three years with the Wildcats. He had 1,305 rushing yards and 14 scores this season while producing six 100-yard rushing efforts.
While the Wildcats defense will be tasked with neutralizing McSorley and the rest of the talented Nittany Lions offense, Snell will look to capitalize on a Penn State run defense that limited opponents to 3.99 yards per carry but ranked below the national average in rushing yards against per game (168.4). Snell averaged 5.7 YPC on 72 attempts vs AP-ranked teams in 2018.
Snell averaged under four YPC in just three games this season – and two of those performances came against top-30 run defenses in Missouri and Georgia. Look for Snell and the Kentucky run game to do enough in this one to maintain possession and limit Penn State’s offensive possessions, increasing the likelihood of an UNDER conversion.
Penn State for Three?
Long-shot plays carry a little extra risk around bowl time, given that there is precious little comparative data available. It also doesn’t help that, in most cases, the teams haven’t played in a month. But this game carries an interesting long-shot option that combines the potential of a low-scoring affair with Kentucky’s formidable red-zone defense – and horrid kicking game.
The Wildcats were one of the stingiest red-zone teams in all of Division I. They allowed just 34 red-zone visits in 12 games – and of those trips, only 16 resulted in touchdowns, while another 10 produced a field goal. Among the top 20 teams in the country in red-zone defense, that 16:10 TD-to-FG ratio is second-best, behind only the Mississippi State Bulldogs (eight TDs, 15 FGs).
Coupled with the fact that Kentucky boasts the 100th-best red-zone success rate, along with a field-goal kicking tandem that made just seven of 13 attempts (while the Nittany Lions allowed opposing FBS kickers to make just 50 percent of their field-goal tries), the Penn State field goal as the Sportsbook play of the game looks like a strong option at +450.
My Pick: Lions Roar to a Cover
There’s little question which is the more balanced team – but can Penn State do enough on offense to cover by a touchdown against one of the most formidable defensive units in the country? This one will come down to how Kentucky’s passing game performs – and I don’t like the Wildcats’ chances at all if they have to rely on quarterback play.
The Nittany Lions led the country in sacks per game (3.58) and should feast on a Kentucky offensive line that allowed a sack on nearly 9.5 percent of dropbacks against FBS opponents (114th). I like the Nittany Lions to make things incredibly difficult on the Wildcats offense while doing just enough with the football to make good on the cover.
