Former conference rivals renew acquaintances once again in the SoFi Hawai’i Bowl as the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors “host” the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in the final college football game before Christmas. Hawaii owned an 8-2 advantage in head-to-head matchups dating back to when the teams regularly faced each other in the Western Athletic Conference, but they haven’t met since Hawaii downed the Bulldogs 44-26 in 2011. That was Louisiana Tech’s fifth loss in as many trips to the island, bad news for the Bulldogs as this game will be contested at Hawaii’s home field of Aloha Stadium in the Honolulu suburb of Hafawa.
Oddsmakers have surely taken the Warriors’ home-field advantage into account while making Hawaii (8-5 overall, 5-3 in Mountain West play) a 1-point favorite over the Bulldogs (7-5 overall, 5-3 Conference USA). Meanwhile, the OVER/UNDER opened at 57.5 points before being bet up to 60 within a couple of days.
- Hawaii is 0-15-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite.
- Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.
- Louisiana Tech is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five road games against Hawaii (avg. losing margin: 20.4).
Louisiana Tech vs Hawaii Game Center
HAWAII HAS OPTIONS AT QUARTERBACK, BUT WHO WILL START?
When one of your quarterbacks finishes the campaign among the top passers in the entire nation, you don’t expect to have a quarterback controversy going into the bowl season. But that’s what the Warriors may have on their hands after the late-season heroics of freshman Chevan Cordeiro, who replaced an ineffective starter Cole McDonald in the second half of Hawaii’s game against UNLV and led the Warriors to a critical comeback victory.
Cordeiro led Hawaii on three consecutive fourth-quarter touchdown drives as the Warriors overcame a 15-point deficit to beat the Rebels 35-28 and clinch bowl eligibility in their second-last game of the year. However, McDonald – whose 3,790 passing yards were sixth in Division 1 – resumed the starting job in Hawaii’s season finale and threw for 452 yards in a 31-30 OT win at San Diego State.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that McDonald will be the No. 1 quarterback in the Hawai’i Bowl. The Warriors sat out Cordeiro against San Diego State in order to maintain his redshirt-freshman status, and he’s still eligible to play in one more game. Regardless of who lines up under center on Hawaii’s first drive of the game, at least the Warriors have options if either McDonald or Cordeiro is ineffective against the Bulldogs defense.
LOUISIANA TECH STRUGGLED DOWN THE STRETCH
The Bulldogs aren’t going into the Hawai’i Bowl with a lot of momentum, having lost three of four to finish the regular season. While a 45-3 loss at Mississippi State came as 24-point underdogs and a 21-20 defeat at Southern Mississippi came a week after Louisiana Tech clinched bowl eligibility, the Bulldogs’ 30-15 loss at home to Western Kentucky (when Tech was a 10.5-point favorite) was especially troubling to coach Skip Holtz.
“I think we saved our worst for the end of the season. I felt like we played very uninspired football early … I don’t think we had a lot of passion,” Holtz lamented to reporters, noting that his team should have been motivated to play well on Senior Day. “I did not see it coming. I did not feel it coming … At the end of the day, they wanted this game more than we did.”
If Louisiana Tech is going to turn things around, a good place to start would be better play inside the red zone. The Bulldogs managed just a field goal in three trips inside the Western Kentucky 20-yard line in their season finale. On the year, Louisiana Tech ranked 72nd in the nation in scoring efficiency in the red zone, scoring on less than 83 percent of those drives.
WILL HAWAII BENEFIT FROM HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE?
Organizers of the Hawai’i Bowl have had to open additional sections of Aloha Stadium “due to high interest and ticket demand.” But I’m not convinced that a pro-Warriors crowd is going to make a huge difference in this clash.
Hawaii has played in the Hawai’i Bowl on seven previous occasions, going just 4-3 in those contests. And while the Warriors routed Middle Tennessee State 52-35 two years ago in their last appearance in this game, Hawaii was a 7.5-point underdog in that game and making its first bowl appearance since 2010. I don’t see the fans getting as fired up for this one.
The Warriors have been pure fade material in the favorite role (0-15-1 ATS in their last 16 when laying points), while Louisiana Tech has flourished as a road underdog (6-1 ATS last seven). I’ll take the points with the short road dog here as the Bulldogs clean up their late-season issues and rely on their 33rd-ranked defense to win their sixth consecutive bowl game.
