NCAAF

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs Appalachian State Mountaineers

Louisiana-Lafayette
Ragin' Cajuns
7 - 5
Appalachian State
Mountaineers
9 - 2
December 01, 2018, 12:00 PM EST
 | Kidd Brewer Stadium

Game Preview

Louisiana-Lafayette
Ragin' Cajuns
7 - 5
Appalachian State
Mountaineers
9 - 2
December 01, 2018, 12:00 PM EST
 | Kidd Brewer Stadium
  • The first-ever Sun Belt title game might not be all that close, if oddsmakers are correct. The Appalachian State Mountaineers come in as whopping 17.5-point home favorites for Saturday afternoon’s conference championship against a Louisiana team that has already lost once to the Eastern Division champions this season. But at least the Ragin’ Cajuns scored 17 points in that defeat – which is more than most of the Mountaineers’ 2018 opponents can say.

    Given how the Appalachian State defense performed this season – limiting opponents to just 15.4 points, the fifth-lowest average in all of Division I – it might surprise some that the Mountaineers’ conference title hopes came down to the final game of the regular season. But a convincing 21-10 win over Troy, which came into the game 7-0 in conference play, solidified Appalachian State’s status as the team to beat in the conference. Louisiana reeled off three straight wins to close the regular season and clinch the West title.

    SHARK BITES
    • Appalachian State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games.
    • Louisiana is 7-2 ATS in its previous nine games.
    • The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

    Louisiana-Lafayette vs Appalachian State Game Center

    Better Than Alabama

    OK, so perhaps it’s hyperbolic to suggest that the Appalachian State defense is better than that of the top-ranked Crimson Tide. But the stats don’t lie: The Mountaineers come into the inaugural Sun Belt championship game boasting a defense that held seven opponents to 10 or fewer points, and could very well do the same to Louisiana in Saturday’s rematch.

    How stingy has the Appalachian State defense been so far in 2018? The Mountaineers have allowed just 19 touchdowns in 11 games; only the Mississippi State Bulldogs surrendered fewer TDs this season, while the sensational Crimson Tide gave up 21 touchdowns. The Mountaineers have also given up just 23 red-zone trips, second-fewest in the nation.

    As good as Louisiana has been on offense, the Ragin’ Cajuns were probably fortunate to get to 17 points in their first encounter back on October 20 – and with Appalachian State having held all but one foe to 17 or fewer points since a season-opening loss to Penn State, the UNDER on Louisiana’s team total looks like the superior play here.

    Something Special About Mountaineers?

    While Appalachian State gets plenty of attention for its defensive prowess, it has been nearly as impressive on offense, ranking 17th in the country at 37.3 points per game. And while the majority of their TDs have come the old-fashioned way, the Mountaineers are versatile enough to find other ways to score – and could produce a nice payoff for bettors with faith.

    Appalachian State comes into the game with six special teams/defensive touchdowns, though five of those came over their first three games of the season. Their first TD of the season came courtesy a 100-yard kickoff return, while they’ve also hit pay dirt on a punt return (twice), a fumble recovery in the end zone, a blocked punt and an interception return.

    The relentlessness of the Mountaineers defense, combined with Louisiana likely needing to be aggressive in order to keep pace at hostile Kidd Brewer Stadium, could lead to some intriguing touchdown possibilities for the hosts. Bettors should consider going with “Yes” on the special teams/defensive touchdown prop courtesy the heavily favored Mountaineers.

    My Pick: Need a Cover? There’s an App For That

    Thirteen is almost always an unlucky number – but not for Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are a red-hot 8-1 ATS in their previous nine games as a favorite of 13 or more points dating back to early November 2017. And as you might expect, App State rode its sensational defense to that cover spree, holding six opponents to single digits over that stretch.

    That said, giving Louisiana 17.5 points might seem overly generous given that the Cajuns have averaged better than 38 points over its past three games, while going 8-4 ATS for the season. But the Mountaineers have been truly dominant, with an 11-2-2 ATS mark over their previous 15 games and nine straight home victories by an average of nearly 28 points.

    Appalachian State is the best team in the Sun Belt – and while Louisiana would love to represent the conference at the New Orleans Bowl next month, that isn’t going to happen. Take the home side to win this one going away, covering the sizable spread.

Odds

Saturday, December 1 Sat Dec 1


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+19
-110
+645
o59
-110
-19
-110
-855
u59
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
+17
+100
+720
o55
-105
-17
-120
-1200
u55
-115

Edge Finder

31.07
Total Score
34.50
218.57
Passing Yards
249.21
195.57
Rushing Yards
192.07
30:38
Time on Field
31:10
69.21
Number of Plays
70.07
5.98
Yards Per Play
6.30
31.07
Total Score
34.50
7.57
First Quarter
8.43
7.50
Second Quarter
8.50
7.71
Third Quarter
8.71
8.29
Fourth Quarter
8.86
218.57
Passing Yards
249.21
28.86
Pass Attempts
29.57
17.57
Pass Completions
18.21
1.79
Sacks
1.21
12.00
Sack Yards
8.00
12.44
Yards Per Pass
13.68
195.57
Rushing Yards
192.07
40.36
Rush Attempts
40.50
4.85
Yards Per Rush
4.74
0.29
Interceptions
0.86
0.71
Fumbles
1.36
0.29
Fumbles Lost
1.00
0.57
Total Turnovers
1.86
5.29
Penalties
6.07
49.14
Penalty Yards
53.21
30:38
Time on Field
31:10
69.21
Number of Plays
70.07
5.98
Yards Per Play
6.30
4.21
Punts
3.64
46.13
Punt Average
40.65
65.14
Return Yards
115.86

Head To Head

UL.LAF
Stat Type APP-ST
0-5
Record
5-0
2-3
ATS
3-2
1-4
O/U
1-4
10.80
Score
35.40
116.40
Rush Yds
249.60
30.40
Pass Attempts
22.40
62.50
Completion %
60.71
177.40
Passing Yds
185.00
293.8
Total Yds
434.6
0.80
Turnovers
1.20
UL.LAF
Stat Type APP-ST
0-3
Record
3-0
1-2
ATS
2-1
1-2
O/U
1-2
10.33
Score
38.00
147.00
Rush Yds
262.00
29.33
Pass Attempts
23.00
60.23
Completion %
62.32
174.33
Passing Yds
186.00
321.33
Total Yds
448
1.33
Turnovers
0.67
Oct 20/18 (1 of 5)
UL.LAF
Stat Type APP-ST
Away
Home
17
Score
27
+25
ATS
-25
65 o
O/U
65 u
140
Rush Yds
258
27
Pass Attempts
20
62.96
Completion %
50.00
188
Passing Yds
106
328
Total Yds
364
1
Turnovers
1
Dec 2/17 (2 of 5)
UL.LAF
Stat Type APP-ST
Away
Home
14
Score
63
+14
ATS
-14
58 o
O/U
58 u
162
Rush Yds
357
26
Pass Attempts
23
57.69
Completion %
78.26
207
Passing Yds
251
369
Total Yds
608
3
Turnovers
0
Oct 12/16 (3 of 5)
UL.LAF
Stat Type APP-ST
Home
Away
0
Score
24
+10.5
ATS
-10.5
49 o
O/U
49 u
139
Rush Yds
171
35
Pass Attempts
26
60.00
Completion %
57.69
128
Passing Yds
201
267
Total Yds
372
0
Turnovers
1
Nov 28/15 (4 of 5)
UL.LAF
Stat Type APP-ST
Away
Home
7
Score
28
+22
ATS
-22
59 o
O/U
59 u
42
Rush Yds
230
30
Pass Attempts
21
70.00
Completion %
66.67
204
Passing Yds
172
246
Total Yds
402
0
Turnovers
2
Nov 22/14 (5 of 5)
UL.LAF
Stat Type APP-ST
Home
Away
16
Score
35
-8
ATS
+8
62.5 o
O/U
62.5 u
99
Rush Yds
232
34
Pass Attempts
22
61.76
Completion %
50.00
160
Passing Yds
195
259
Total Yds
427
0
Turnovers
2

Team Records

UL.LAF
Record APP-ST
7-5
All
9-2
5-1
Home
5-0
2-4
Away
4-2
0-0
Neutral Site
0-0
8-4
ATS
7-2-2
4-2
ATS Home
2-1-2
4-2
ATS Away
5-1
0-0
ATS Neutral Site
0-0
6-5
O/U
6-5
3-2
O/U Home
3-2
3-3
O/U Away
3-3
0-0
O/U Neutral Site
0-0
UL.LAF
Record APP-ST
5-3
All
7-1
3-1
Home
4-0
2-2
Away
3-1
0-0
Neutral Site
0-0
5-3
ATS
4-2-2
2-2
ATS Home
1-1-2
3-1
ATS Away
3-1
0-0
ATS Neutral Site
0-0
3-5
O/U
3-5
2-2
O/U Home
2-2
1-3
O/U Away
1-3
0-0
O/U Neutral Site
0-0
UL.LAF
Record APP-ST
6-4
All
9-1
4-1
Home
5-0
2-3
Away
4-1
0-0
Neutral Site
0-0
7-3
ATS
6-2-2
3-2
ATS Home
2-1-2
4-1
ATS Away
4-1
0-0
ATS Neutral Site
0-0
5-5
O/U
5-5
3-2
O/U Home
3-2
2-3
O/U Away
2-3
0-0
O/U Neutral Site
0-0

Gametime Weather

Weather
11:00am Rain
8ºC / 47ºF
84% Humidity
90% Precipitation
100% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 4
mph

Injuries

NamePositionInj Desc
No Reported Injuries
NamePositionInj Desc
No Reported Injuries

Last 10 Games

DateOppScoreSULineTotalATSOFF. RUSHOFF. PASSOFF. TOTALDEF. RUSHDEF. PASSDEF. TOTALTO
Nov 24, 2018UL.MON31-28W+1.5/71-W/U240213453143201344-1
Nov 17, 2018S.ALA48-38W-19.5/67-L/O210197407223254477-2
Nov 10, 2018GA.ST36-22W-13.5/69.5-W/U355170525252121373-1
Nov 3, 2018TROY16-26L+7.5/64.5-L/U1001702701103174272
Oct 27, 2018ARK.ST47-43W+3/68.5-W/O2283195472082704781
Oct 20, 2018APP-ST17-27L+25/65-W/U1401883282581063640
Oct 13, 2018NMEXST66-38W-7.5/66.5-W/O344415759122284406-1
Oct 6, 2018TEX.ST42-27W-3/57.5-W/O3272305571243014251
Sep 29, 2018ALAB14-56L+48.5/69-W/O200882882683406082
Sep 22, 2018CSTCAR28-30L-3/63-L/U238143381311186497-1
View Game Logs
DateOppScoreSULineTotalATSOFF. RUSHOFF. PASSOFF. TOTALDEF. RUSHDEF. PASSDEF. TOTALTO
Nov 24, 2018TROY21-10W-11/45-P/U20111331462170232-3
Nov 17, 2018GA.ST45-17W-28/54.5-P/O228296524197132329-2
Nov 10, 2018TEX.ST38-7W-19/46.5-W/U22124746886132218-3
Nov 3, 2018CSTCAR23-7W-13.5/52-W/U278127405721061781
Oct 25, 2018GASOU14-34L-11/47.5-L/O149139288277573345
Oct 20, 2018UL.LAF27-17W-25/65-L/U2581063641401883280
Oct 9, 2018ARK.ST35-9W-10.5/59-W/U246144390117219336-3
Sep 29, 2018S.ALA52-7W-25/56.5-W/O348169517832253081
Sep 22, 2018GWEBB72-7W-44/56-W/O43226069234126160-2
Sep 8, 2018CHARLT45-9W-14/48.5-W/O139295434951082030
View Game Logs