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Expect Low Point Total in High-Profile LSU-’Bama Tilt

It’s the closest thing college football fans will get to an early national title game preview, as the LSU Tigers head to Bryant-Denny Stadium for an epic Saturday encounter with the Alabama Crimson Tide. And this meeting of the top two teams in the nation probably means more to the hosts, who can ill afford a loss thanks to a less impressive strength of schedule.

Matchup Information
  • LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide (Matchup Report)
  • Date/Time: November 9, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Alabama -7 | O/U 63.5 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

Alabama opened as a 7-point favorite, and even with the announcement that Tua Tagovailoa would play, the line has only dropped a half point. The total is set at 63.5, the highest these teams have ever seen in their SEC rivalry.

LSU News & Notes

A narrow 23-20 home victory over plucky Auburn did little to assuage fears that the Tigers aren’t ready to end their lengthy losing skid vs Alabama; the Crimson Tide have won eight straight meetings overall, while holding LSU to just 10 total points in their last three meetings. The Tigers managed just 196 total yards in last year’s 29-0 home setback.

So what’s different in 2019? For starters, the LSU offense looks infinitely more dangerous. After finishing 66th in passing offense last season, the Tigers sit second in the country entering Saturday’s game. Quarterback Joe Burrow, who was held to 184 yards with zero TDs and an interception in last year’s tilt, has thrown for 30 TDs while adding three rushing scores this season.

Alabama News & Notes

Getting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back in the fold is critical to the Crimson Tide’s success this weekend. The Heisman Trophy candidate underwent ankle surgery after suffering an injury October 20 against the Tennessee Volunteers and sat out a 48-7 win over Arkansas the following week, but he is returning to action against the Tigers.

It’s encouraging news for a Crimson Tide team that has little margin for error despite ranking second in the nation in average scoring margin vs FBS teams (33.7). Alabama has faced just one Top 25 team so far, and will face only one more the rest of the season – and a loss to LSU could drop the Tide below other marquee one-loss teams in the College Football Playoff pecking order.

Betting Pick: UNDER

The game outcome could go any number of ways, so we feel a whole lot safer banking on these teams falling below the total – just as they’ve done in seven of their last nine meetings.

Shark Bites
  • LSU is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games vs its conference.
  • Alabama is 15-0 SU in its last 15 games vs its conference.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LSU’s last 9 games vs Alabama.