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Auburn favored to win this year’s Tiger Bowl over LSU

A pair of 2-0 teams collide in a great SEC matchup as No. 7 Auburn hosts No. 12 LSU on Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn romped over Alabama State 63-9 in Week 2 and opened as a 9.5-point favorite in its Week 3 match with LSU, which won its Week 2 game 31-0 over Southeastern Louisiana. LSU and Auburn have traded wins over their last five meetings and the total has opened at 45 points.

Shark Bites
  • Auburn is 13-0 SU in its last 13 games at home (avg. winning margin: 30.46).
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of LSU’s last nine games on the road against Auburn.
  • LSU is 2-7 SU in its last nine games on the road against Auburn.

LSU vs Auburn Game Center

LSU looking for rare road win over Auburn

Louisiana State opened the season with an impressive 33-17 win over then-No. 8 Miami and followed up with a 31-0 beatdown of Southeastern Louisiana this past week. However, both of those victories came at home and now it packs up the bus and contests its first road game this year. LSU went 3-2 SU and ATS last season in its five road games with four of those matches going UNDER. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow hasn’t been overly impressive thus far in 2018, completing just 47.7 percent of his passes for 291 yards and two touchdowns.

Burrow will have to buckle down if he wants any sort of success against an Auburn defense that has allowed just 603 yards this season. However, LSU’s bright spot through the first two weeks has been running back Nick Brossette, who has rushed for 262 yards – including a career-high 137 last week – and two touchdowns. But much like Burrow, Brossette is up against a defense that has surrendered just 149 rushing yards this year.

LSU has been rolling in its division, though, going 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven vs the SEC, including 6-0 ATS in its last six. Additionally, the team is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven road contests vs SEC foes. However, since 2000, LSU is just 2-7 SU in the nine games played at Auburn.

Auburn eyes continued home dominance over the SEC

Auburn is riding high following a 63-9 thrashing of Alabama State in Week 2, running its home winning streak to 13, including seven straight over SEC opponents. The program has also gone 5-1-1 ATS over those seven matches vs the SEC. Quarterback Jarrett Stidham has been impressive through the first two weeks of the season, completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 386 yards and two touchdowns. Last year, Stidham was just 9-for-26 for 165 yards in Auburn’s 27-23 loss to LSU. Through the first two weeks of 2018, LSU has surrendered 448 passing yards.

Since the start of 2016, Auburn is 12-5 SU vs SEC opponents with an average winning margin of 23.25. Its biggest win over that span was topping Alabama 26-14 at Jordan-Hare Stadium last year. Additionally, Auburn is 10-5-2 ATS over those last 17 SEC contests. However, it has won just three of the last 11 Tiger Bowls, though LSU has only two wins in Alabama  over that span.

UNDER is trending in this match

LSU and Auburn have swapped OVERs and UNDERs in their last eight meetings. However, eight of the last nine games between the two at Auburn have gone UNDER, including going UNDER 45 points in six of their last eight at Auburn. Additionally, LSU has gone UNDER in 19 of its last 30 road games against the SEC. Although LSU has averaged 32 points through the first two weeks of the season, it should have run up the score more against Southeastern Louisiana, but as mentioned before QB Joe Burrow has struggled early, failing to eclipse 300 total passing yards yet.

I like Auburn on the spread

So far in the season, Auburn has taken care of business, with its opening-week win over Washington and then flexing its muscles over Alabama State in Week 2. That’s what was missing from LSU – it earned that good win over Miami to begin the year, but couldn’t get much going through the air against Southeastern Louisiana. Auburn has also covered in seven of its last nine home games vs LSU, including the last four straight. Finally, Auburn’s offense has been rolling early, racking up 987 total yards through the first two weeks, while LSU has only accumulated 631 total yards.

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