Finishing second in their division isn’t the goal for most teams, but when you’re in the same grouping as Alabama, there’s no shame in being the runner-up. Second in the SEC West is on the line Saturday night as the LSU Tigers (9-2 overall, 5-2 SEC) visit the Texas A&M Aggies (7-4, 4-3), a game that will be televised nationwide on the SEC Network. LSU will also be motivated for a shot at a 10-win season – and possibly even a spot in the College Football Playoff, though a lot of other things would have to go right for the Tigers over the next few weeks as well.
Meanwhile, the Aggies are eager to establish themselves as Alabama’s biggest threat in the West in their first year under head coach Jimbo Fisher. Both LSU and Texas A&M tuned up for this showdown with easy double-digit victories last week over inferior opponents, the Tigers beating up on Rice 42-10 while the Aggies routed UAB 41-20. LSU has won each of the last seven meetings between these programs, but it’s the host Aggies who are 2-point favorites to pull out the victory in this year’s clash.
- LSU is 7-0 SU in the last 7 meetings (avg. winning margin: 14.71).
- LSU is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 conference games.
- Texas A&M is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games.
TIGERS’ PASS GAME BREAKS OUT VS RICE
When you’re playing against a bottom-feeder like the 1-11 Rice Owls, a dominant victory needs to be taken with a grain of salt. But the Tigers still should be excited about one element in particular that showed up in their 42-10 victory over the Owls – a down-the-field passing game that has been lacking in Baton Rouge for a long time.
Before last week’s game was 35 minutes old, Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow had already completed 11 passes of 15 yards or more. He exited the game before the end of the third quarter with 307 passing yards, just the third time Burrow has thrown for more than 250 yards all season.
“No question, we’ve got to put the ball in athletes’ hands in space and we did a better job of that tonight,” Tigers coach Ed Orgeron told reporters. “Obviously, it was against a lesser opponent. We’re going to have to do a better job against a bigger opponent, but that’s the kind of offense we need.”
Texas A&M is obviously a tougher foe, but pass defense (261 passing yards allowed per game, 105th in college football) has been the Aggies’ weakness this season. It’ll be interesting to see if the Tigers enjoy similar success down the field this week.
AGGIES LOOK TO CLEAN UP THEIR SECONDARY
While the Tigers were feeling good about their lopsided victory last week, the Aggies didn’t have nearly as much to be pleased with in their 41-20 win over UAB. The Blazers aren’t quite the pushover that Rice is (UAB had won eight straight games coming into its visit to College Station), but that doesn’t excuse the Aggies giving up more than 300 yards passing or allowing 10 of 16 third-down conversions.
In fact, if it weren’t for some UAB miscues, Texas A&M might have had to sweat out last week’s result. UAB allowed a fumble return for a touchdown on its first play from scrimmage and the Blazers missed three field goals.
On the bright side for Texas A&M, that performance exposed some things for Fisher to clean up in practice leading up to the game with LSU. “We can’t give up that many yards and give up that many third-down conversions,” Fisher told reporters. “We got to keep learning to play the pass better and get some more rushes and get better because we got one of the top, most talented teams in the country coming in here next week.”
WHY I’M ON THE UNDER
This should be a great game between two quality teams, and I think the oddsmakers have it right by making Texas A&M a small home favorite. That’s why I don’t have any interest in picking a side here, although teasing the Tigers up over a touchdown makes sense if you’re looking for a teaser leg this weekend.
I do, however, like the UNDER in this matchup with so much on the line for both teams. Each of these squads has been playing lower-scoring games (the UNDER is 5-2 in the Aggies’ last seven overall and 4-1 in LSU’s last five on the road), plus Fisher will be focusing on cleaning up Texas A&M’s secondary in practice this week. And as good as LSU’s offense looked against Rice, it’ll take more than three quarters against a horrible opponent for me to buy into the Tigers’ passing game.
